Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 19th July)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: large windy south swell. Biggest Friday, but with dicey winds. Large range in size between beaches too, depending on exposure. Sat/Sun: large clean S/SE tending SE groundswell with light offshores. 

Recap: Tiny to flat conditions for the last few days with offshore winds. 

Flatacular Manly this afternoon

Next week (July 20th - 21st)

You know it’s tiny when the Sydney buoy is recording a metre of swell out of the west. 

This is no surprise given the absence of meaningful groundswell and a gusty westerly breeze. But the good news is that this is the precursor to an extended period of strong swell from the southern quadrant.

Gale force S/SW winds are currently extending off the coast as a strong front pushes east, and a new low develops in the Tasman Sea.  This will initially kick up a strong swell for Thursday, however a secondary front will wrap around the low around the same time, intensifying S/SW gales off the Far South Coast and maintaining strong southerly energy into Friday.

In fact, Friday will deliver the best waves of the next few days. Thursday should be quite sizeable at south facing beaches, though we may see a slight dip in size throughout the day. South swell magnets should pull in 4-6ft sets (bigger in the Hunter) with much smaller waves at remaining beaches due to the acute swell direction.

Interestingly, conditions will be clean (if blustery) thanks to a gusty W’ly tending W/SW airstream as the secondary front approaches from the south.

By Friday, the secondary fetch - working on the active sea state generated by the initial front - will have generated a stronger, slightly longer period south swell that should push set waves around the 6ft+ mark across south facing beaches. Again, it’ll be significantly smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure (3-4ft most open beaches, 1-2ft southern corners), however we’re looking at larger sets across the Hunter. 

However, the associated front will influence the coastal margin a little more, so aside from an early period of W/SW winds, we’re looking at a developing S/SW airstream throughout the day, possibly even S’ly at a handful of locations through the afternoon. This will impact surf quality at exposed beaches though protected southern corners will remain relatively clean (though much smaller). 

This weekend (July 22nd - 23rd)

Whilst Thursday and Friday are motoring along with building S’ly swells, the primary Tasman Low - by this time just off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island - is expected to reintensify, generating gale to storm force S thru’ S/SE winds that will kick up a large swell for Saturday.

The models have been moving the timing on this around a little over the last 48 hours, but seem to have settled back where we were in Monday’s notes. That is: possibly not quite in the water at dawn on Saturday (though there’ll still be a strong residual S’ly swell present), then building through mid-late morning ahead of a peak in the afternoon. 

Most exposed beaches - mainly those with good southerly exposure - should see strong 6ft+ sets, and it’ll be a bigger across the Hunter and also at offshore reefs and bombies where the relatively long swell periods (14-15 seconds) should really exaggerate surf size (don’t be surprised if it’s closer to 8-10ft at a handful of reliable locations). Swell direction will initially be S/SE but it'll slowly veer SE throughout the course of the event.

Even better, is a new ridge of high pressure that will dominant southern NSW, creating light W/NW winds all day.

Sunday will see the surf ease slowly in size but it’ll be solid early (4-6ft south facing beaches, smaller elsewhere, bigger in the Hunter) and then ease throughout the day to 3-4ft. Local winds conditions should remain perfect under a light W/NW flow.

Next week (July 24th onwards)

A strong front will exit Bass Strait overnight Sunday, but it looks very west in orientation so probably won’t provide much more than a minor kick in south swell sometime later Monday or early Tuesday. We'll see small residual SE swell around the 2ft mark at most open beaches on Monday, and probably a similar size of new south swell (perhaps some bigger sets into the afternoon). 

A powerful polar low tracking behind will north-east into the lower Tasman Sea around the same time, generating an excellent through highly direction long period S’ly swell that’s due to build through Tuesday, peaking late afternoon or overnight and easing through Wednesday. We could see 3-5ft surf at south facing beaches from this source. More on this in Friday’s notes.