Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th July)

Best Days: No great days. Maybe Friday for a small S/SE swell and an offshore breeze. Sunday should also see a small S'ly swell with light winds. Next Thursday on track for a solid S'ly swell. 

Recap: Tuesday saw an easing S’ly swell across the region with 2ft+ sets at south facing beaches and early light offshore winds ahead of a gusty S’ly change. Winds have been variable today and a new S’ly groundswell has provided 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. 

This week (July 13th - 14th)

Not a lot of action on the way for the coming days. 

Our current south swell will ease through Thursday, and a new S/SE swell expected later Thursday thru’ Friday won’t be very big - the responsible fetch (off the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island) wasn’t particularly strong and it was aimed towards New Caledonia. So We’ll see the biggest waves from this source across Northern NSW, becoming smaller as you track south from Seal Rocks.

In fact, our wave model really isn’t picking up this energy very well (though being a flukey swell source that’s not entirely surprising). So keep your confidence low for anything worthwhile as there’s a fair chance it’ll disappoint at many beaches. 

Thursday will be between swells - early morning may see some lingering 2ft sets at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter) but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere, and size will ease throughout the day. Conditions will be clean with mainly light variable winds. 

The new S/SE swell is expected to start showing very late afternoon, more likely overnight and should plateau through Friday with occasional 1-2ft sets across south facing beaches south from Sydney, with larger 2-3ft sets north from Sydney to the Hunter coast. But they’ll be slow and inconsistent, and beaches with less southerly exposure will see much smaller surf. It’ll be nice and clean though with light NW winds. 

This weekend (July 15th - 16th)

The start of the weekend is looking pretty small and weak. Friday’s S/SE swell will disappear into Saturday so we can expect generally small weak leftovers across exposed beaches, and freshening W/SW winds as a front crosses the coast. 

It’s worth noting that a secondary intensification of the low pressure system responsible for Friday’s minor S/SE swell (around Thursday) will unfortunately be bisected by New Zealand (see image below). The models are estimating up to 50kts exiting western Cook Strait (the body of water separating the north and south islands) but the fetch is very poorly aligned within our swell window, and doesn’t hang around too long either. So its swell potential is minimal right now - Northern NSW should pick up some small new long period energy Saturday afternoon and through Sunday but I am doubtful at this stage that we'll see much across Southern NSW. However, I’ll keep an eye on it for Friday’s update, as a small change in its orientation could significantly change the equation for the weekend surf forecast. 

Anyway, Saturday's W/SW airstream will extend south to eastern Bass Strait and this will be the source of a small pulse of south swell for Sunday. As per usual it’s a very flukey, erratic source but south facing beaches in Sydney should see occasional 2ft+ sets throughout the day (inconsistent, and only showing at swell magnets) whilst the Hunter may see occasional 2-3ft+ sets. 

However, it’ll remain tiny at those locations that don’t have good southerly exposure. Fortunately, conditions will be clean with light offshore winds. 

So, flag Saturday and aim for a Sunday session at the most reliable south swell magnet you can think of.

Next week (July 17th onwards)

Sunday’s small south swell will disappear by Monday and all indicators are for tiny surf conditions through the first few days of the new week.

A broad, complex trough developing across Bass Strait and the southern Tasman Sea may spawn a Tasman Low mid-week, with a chance for a solid south swell centered around Thursday. But this is still more than a week away so let’s take a closer look at the latest model updates on Friday.