Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 24th May)

Best Days: Thurs: peaky S'ly swell. Fri/Sat/Sun: very inconsistent E/NE swell with good winds. 

Recap: Monday’s impressive long period E/SE swell eased steadily into Tuesday though still delivered great waves across Sydney beaches around 4ft. We’ve seen a smaller mix of SE and E/NE swell today with sets around the 2-3ft mark. Conditions are clean with light offshore winds. 

This week (Thursday 24th - Friday  26th)

There's nothing of any great interest for the next few days.

We’ll see a steady undercurrent of E/NE swell for Thursday around 2ft at open beaches, plus a fresh pulse of S’ly swell generated by a front currently pushing east of Tasmania. 

The models have slightly strengthened this system so I have added a little more size to Thursday’s estimates at south facing beaches - 2-3ft sets are likely across much of the coast, with a few bigger bombs across the Newy stretch.

The front will be well and truly into the Tasman Sea by Thursday morning, so winds should be generally light offshore, however there’s a reasonable chance some locations (mainly Hunter) could see a lingering SW flow, which is cross-shore in this region. But in general we’re looking at favourable conditions.

On Friday we’ll see this south swell ease rapidly in size, but a new E/NE swell will increase throughout the day, generated by a tropical low that formed south of Fiji on Monday. Our model isn’t picking this up very well (only estimating 1-2ft sets) but I think that it’s not resolving this system properly and we’re more likely to see occasional 2-3ft waves at exposed NE facing beaches through the afternoon (there may be a slight lag on this swell at dawn). 

However, there will be extremely long breaks between the sets, because the swell source is a little further to the east than previous systems in recent months. Friday’s conditions are looking great with mainly light variable winds. 

This weekend (Sat 27th - Sun 28th)

With no new swell sources this weekend, we’ll be relying on very intermittent activity from the E/NE to keep our open beaches rideable.

Fortunately, we should see a similar size range as per Friday afternoon, though the sets will become increasingly inconsistent thanks to the source of this energy slowly retreating eastwards into the South Pacific over the coming days. A minor pulse is expected through Saturday night so Sunday morning may show a brief period of vigour, but in general it’s possible for fifteen minute flat spells between set waves. 

The good news is that surface conditions are looking good with light winds on Saturday (possible late afternoon northerly in some locations) tending NW and freshening into Sunday as a front approaches from the west. 

Next week (Mon 29th onwards)

We’re still looking at a cold outbreak across the eastern states from later Sunday onwards, but the models have split the surface low into two parts - a weak Tasman Low and a stronger but poorly aligned polar low. This has - for now - reduced the swell potential from the south through the middle of next week, though I wouldn’t rule it out completely yet. 

More cold outbreaks appear to be stacking up behind that in a classic winter fashion so it’s looking like a period of interchangeable westerly winds and south swells for the next few weeks ahead.

See you Friday!