Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th May)

Best Days: No great days though Sat should have some small clean (but very inco) beachies as this E/NE swell fades. Mon/Tues/Wed: on standby for a possible E/NE then S'ly swell combo.  

Recap: Thursday saw a fun renewal of S/SE swell with sets around 3ft across most open beaches. This swell has eased into today but replaced with a very inconsistent E/NE swell around 2-3ft, originating from ex-TC Donna as it tracked SE of New Caledonia. Winds have been mainly light both days.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

The latest model data actually suggests we’ll see a peak in energy from the E/NE later this afternoon but surfcam observations don’t support this theory. However, the trailing fetch behind ex-TC Donna was considerable (though not especially strong) so this should maintain small E/NE swells through the weekend. 

I’ve pulled back my expectations for Saturday morning, and seeing how inconsistent the waves are right now; I’m less confident we’ll have much in the way of good surf as the trailing energy from the trade flow south of Fiji and Samoa was located a long distance away. Exposed beaches may see occasional 2ft+ sets otherwise many beaches will see long periods of tiny conditions. Expect size to ease a little during the day, and light winds are expected in general.

On Sunday wave heights will diminish further and light winds will swing to the south (though with no strength) as a weak trough pushes off the coast. So, expect plenty of small, clean grovelling for the next few days (good chance to rack up some Mothers Day brownie points, eh?).

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Remember on Monday when I wrote:

“The synoptics look devoid of activity next week! Which doesn’t mean there won’t be any swell.. it’s not uncommon for model runs heavily laden with cyclone activity at the front end to see little (modelled) activity at the back end. I suspect we’ll see a few swell sources appearing for next week by Wednesday”.

Well, it’s taken a few more days than that but we do have a complex, existing synoptic chart appearing next week.

A trough developing across the East Coast on Sunday is expected to display an infeed of NE winds through the central/northern Tasman Sea (see chart below), before a surface low forms well east of the South Coast, probably later Monday or into Tuesday, kicking up S’ly winds along the Southern NSW coast.

The models don’t seem overly keen on either swell source for now (only favouring some short range S'ly windswell centered around Tuesday), but given the ramping up the model guidance has undertaken over the last few days, I wouldn’t be surprised if this complex trough-cum-Tasman-Low turns up to be a decent swell generator for Southern NSW - initially building E/NE swell early in the week followed by a solid S’ly swell Tuesday or Wednesday.

Unfortunately, there’s not enough confidence in the model data to estimate any size or strength (nor local conditions) but I’ll update my thoughts in the comments below over the weekend as updated data becomes available. 

Until then, have a great weekend!