Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th May)

Best Days: Thurs: fun pulse of S/SE swell, mainly good winds. Fri: fun pulse of inconsistent E/NE swell with light winds. Sat: get in early for the tail end of the E/NE swell. 

Recap: So, Tuesday saw an unusually wide range in wave heights across the coast, even more so than what we typically expect under direct S'ly swell events. Many beaches underperformed in the order of a couple of feet, however some reliable south swell magnets picked up 8-10ft bombs - well above expectations. Today has seen even more perplexing range in surf size, with much smaller waves across the Sydney region - 2-3ft against an expectation of 4-5ft - yet we’ve had multiple reports from other parts of Southern NSW seeing at least twice the size of Sydney. Very bizarre indeed.

This week (May 11 - 12)

Technically, we are between pulses. The Tasman Low responsible for the last few days of southerly swell is still positioned nicely within our SE swell window, though in a much weakened state compared to Monday. A reasonable fetch of southerly winds are wrapping around the low’s western flank this evening, and will generate a fresh pulse for Thursday.

Although yesterday and today came in under expectations at many beaches (though certainly not all), tomorrow’s new energy should provide a slightly larger spread of swell owing to the slightly more east in the swell direction (though the actual swell direction will probably come in at S/SE). South facing beaches should see 3ft+ sets throughout the day, with smaller waves at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

This swell will then ease through Friday, early 2ft+ sets at south facing beaches (mainly north from Sydney to the Hunter) at dawn, smaller elsewhere and easing steadily during the day.

Also in the mix over the next few days is a fresh pulse of E/NE swell, originating from ex-TC Donna which is currently pushing SE from New Caledonia, into the Northern Tasman Sea. I'm not keen on its S/SE track, but it does extend a broad, lengthy fetch back out into the Samoan region (where another cyclone - Ella - is currently tracking towards Fiji). This is certainly a positive for at least a small undercurrent of E/NE energy for the next few days.

Thursday should see small, slowly building E/NE swells courtesy of the last few days of trades through that region, ahead of a more prominent kick in E/NE groundswell on Friday that should provide occasional 3ft+ sets across exposed beaches during the day. Confidence is not especially high on this event - size or timing - but I am reasonably certain we’ll see some halfway decent waves from this source on Friday to compensate for the diminishing south swell. Just bear in mind that set waves will be very inconsistent, owing to the large travel distance. 

Winds are looking generally quite good for the next few days. A lingering southerly is possible in some regions on Thursday, though the morning flow should be around to the SW in most regions. Light variable winds are then expected for most of Friday.

This weekend (May 13 - 14)

The weekend is looking pretty small. 

A moderate change tipped in Monday’s notes (for Friday) has been weakened so there are no new southerly swell prospects for the weekend. As such, we’ll kick off Saturday morning with easing E/NE swell from Friday. Set waves will be very inconsistent and should manage 2-3ft at first though it’ll likely ease to 1-2ft during the day. 

Small weak residual energy will then pad out Sunday, all of it from the E/NE and very inconsistent around 1-2ft. Model guidance has a minor kick during the day but this is likely originating from ex-TC Donna as it tracks close to New Zealand’s North Island around Thursday, and I don’t hold much confidence in this right now (due to the speed of the forward track). But I’ll reevaluate on Friday.

Both days look great conditions-wise with mainly light variable winds. 

Next week (May 15 onwards)

Still nothing major on the synoptic for next week at the moment, but there is a suggestion for a broad troughy pattern through the guts of the Tasman next week. This could be early ingredients for a decent system to develop in this region mid-late next week (specifically, the northern Tasman) - but it’s still early days. More on this in Friday’s notes.