Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st May)

Best Days: Thurs/Fri: fun clean south swell with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Wave heights generally came within expectations over the weekend, with 2-3ft southerly sets Saturday morning easing during the day, ahead of a rebuilding south swell on Sunday that nudged 3-4ft at south facing beaches. Winds were light offshore for much of Saturday, and the shallow S’ly change on Sunday morning ended up being delayed by a few hours - offering a window of clean conditions early before cross-shore winds kicked in mid-morning, and then becoming light again into the afternoon. Today we’ve seen a steadily easing south swell across the region with early light offshore winds tending light to moderate N’ly during the day. 

This week (May 2 - 5)

With no new swells across the region, today's easing trend will continue and we can expect tiny surf to pad out Tuesday. 

On Wednesday, a fresh southerly change will push across the coast in association with a passing cold front. This should generate 3ft of shore range windswell throughout the day though quality won’t be very high under the accompanying southerly breeze. 

Late Wednesday and into Thursday, we’ll see slightly longer period S’ly swell push along the Southern NSW coast. This will have been generated by a fetch related to the parent low to Wednesday’s change, which is currently forming well S/SW of Tasmania, right on the western periphery of our south swell window. The low itself isn’t a major feature (mainly due to the large distance it lies from the mainland) however a long, broad expanse of S/SW winds between it and the cold front will generate some useful south swell for Thursday. 

Our model has eased this back to just 2ft at south facing beaches, which I think is an undercall - in my opinion we should be looking at reasonable 3ft sets at south facing beaches, with occasional bigger waves across the Hunter. Expect much smaller surf at beaches not directly open to the south.

Local winds should become light and variable by Thursday morning but there is a risk of a lingering S/SE breeze across some coasts (mainly the Hunter). Elsewhere we should see light variable winds for much of the day. 

Smaller, but slightly longer period swell will then fill in overnight Thursday and into Friday - this time originating from the core of the polar low itself. Ordinarily I’m not fond of weather systems positioned this far away from the coast (see image below), but this particular low is modelled to sling-shot through our swell window nicely over the next 24 hours, which increases the chances for some fun waves across Southern NSW. 

So, we should see a mix of south swells to finish the week - easing mid-range energy from Thursday (2ft sets at south facing beaches) in addition to some inconsistent 3ft sets from the polar low (again, the models are low-balling this, estimating just 1-2ft at south facing beaches).

Expect very long breaks between these larger waves, and, it’ll be much smaller at beaches not open to the south (though there Hunter should again pick up some bigger sets at times). Conditions should be clean with light variable winds. 

 
This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Looks like a quiet weekend of waves ahead.

Friday’s mix of south swells will ease into Saturday. South facing beaches may have some stray 2ft+ sets early (bigger in the Hunter) but it’s expected to become smaller during the day, and winds will freshen from the NW as a cut off low develops west of Tasmania. Expect very small surf at beaches not completely open to the south.

On Sunday it looks like we’ll see strengthening offshore winds and tiny waves prior to this low pushing into our immediate south swell window for the start of next week. As such I'm not expecting much in the way of rideable surf at this point in time.

There is a chance that one of my favourite flukey swell windows - the waters east of Bass Strait - may fire up with westerly gales (which sometimes produce interesting south swells) however at this stage it looks like they may develop too late to benefit weekend warriors. 

I’ll also be keeping an eye on the tropics as we’ve got some interesting synoptics in store for the weekend that should eventually favour our region with trade swell - but again, probably not until early-mid next week at best. 

Next week (May 8 onwards)

Areas to watch for next week - the SW Tasman Sea and the Lower Coral Sea. 

First up, it looks like we will see a deep low intensify east of Tasmania around Monday, generating a strong south swell later that day or more likely Tuesday. It’s too early to have any confidence in size and timing but all indications are for a solid event. A secondary front trailing behind should maintain good southerly energy through the middle to latter part of the week. 

Up north, we will also be on the watch for a possible Tropical Cyclone developing near Vanuatu later this week. Model guidance has it meandering about the region for a few days so with a weak steering environment there is a greater chance that it could enter our swell window, which means we may see some swell from it down across Southern NSW - though probably not until mid-late next week.

Prior to this, we should start to see a small building trade swell from the supporting ridge across the Northern Tasman Sea during the early to middle of the week. No great size is likely but even small mid-range energy from this direction usually benefits a greater percentage of the coast, compared to south swells (sorry, Cronulla!).

Let’s check back on Wednesday to see how the models are interpreting these developments.