Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 10th March)

Best Days: Saturday: Strong E'ly tending SE groundswell with good winds south of the Cenny Coast. Sunday: get in early before the N'ly breeze picks up. Mon/Tues/Wed: potential for small NE swells and pockets of light winds. 

Recap: Large surf continued through Thursday in the 6ft range at open beaches before muscling up to 6-8ft today as the final strong pulse originating this Tasman Low - not an East Coast Low - reached the mainland. I’m pleased with the size call (against model guidance) though it’s a shame that winds were problematic on Thursday with a persistent S/SE flow north from Cronulla. However locations south of the Coal Coast enjoyed mainly SW winds and clean conditions on Thursday. Today we saw a few more locations open up with SW winds, though fresh southerlies have redeveloped during the day. 

Shark Island surfcam footage from this morning; note old mate playing a bit of mo-town on the first wave

This weekend (Mar 11th - 12th)

The Tasman Low is beginning to weaken today though interestingly, a fetch of strong winds are rotating clockwise from its southern flank to its western flank. They were SE in direction this morning across the Central/Southern Tasman Sea, aimed nicely within our swell window, but by this evening will be aimed more southerly in direction, away from us, to locations further north.

As such we’re looking at plenty of strong swell to kick start the weekend, and the swell direction will probably shift back to the SE under the influence of this secondary pulse. Open beaches - mainly those facing south - should see the bulk size with sets in and around the 6ft mark on Saturday morning, with size likely to ease to a less consistent 4-6ft during the day. 

Local winds are looking pretty good for most locations all day, except the Hunter region which may still feel the glancing effects of the southerly fetch around the low’s western flank. There’s a chance for a S’ly breeze here (even SW winds aren’t great, unless you have a southern corner) but everywhere else south of the Central Coast should see light SW winds (W’ly on the South Coast) and afternoon sea breezes. 

Surf size will ease a little more into Sunday however it’s worth noting that as of Saturday morning, the southern flank of the Tasman Low is still expected to to display a long S/SE fetch of about 25kts from Sydney latitudes down to the SW tip of New Zealand. Although not perfectly aligned within our swell window, this should maintain 4ft sets at south facing beaches through Sunday morning with only a gradual easing to 2-3ft during the day. It'll become less consistent as the day wears on too, and wave heights will be much smaller at beaches with less southerly exposure. 

Of more concern on Sunday are freshening northerly winds as a complex trough builds over the eastern states. It’s expected to slowly freshen overnight Saturday, becoming gusty through Sunday with a brief chance for early NW winds in a few areas - but for the most part it’ll probably be straight N’ly, tending N/NE into the afternoon; strongest on the South Coast but still fresh and gusty north from Wollongong to the Hunter.

Fortunately, with a reasonable SE swell still running across the coast you should be able to tuck into a sheltered northern corner for the best waves throughout the day. These N/NE winds will generate some local windswell by the end of the day but really, you’ll be better off working around the easing SE groundswell. 

Next week (Mar 13th)

We've got another dynamic week of weather and waves for Southern NSW, though nowhere near as big as what we've seen this week. 

The trough over the Eastern States this weekend is expected to slip offshore on Monday, and this creates some uncertainty with regards to the winds. Overall, we’re still looking at NE winds through Monday and Tuesday though there’s a reasonable chance for periods of light variable winds too. 

Sunday night’s strengthening NE breeze should kick up some NE windswell for Monday though the models are not keen on much size - probably because the trough pushes the fetch back to the north-east overnight, which temporarily disrupts swell generating activity in our near swell window. Our surf model only has 2ft throughout the day but I think there’s a chance for 2-3ft sets at NE facing beaches. I’m just not 100% on the likelihood of decent winds; at this stage the early session is your best bet but I’ll re-evaluate over the weekend when I get a chance.

Tuesday and Wednesday look similar with moderate confidence for small NE windswells to provide workable conditions at NE facing beaches. However local winds are dicey right now so it’s not worth getting too excited about. 

Otherwise, strengthening E’ly winds through the Northern Tasman Sea should kick up some trade swell for Northern NSW mid-late next week, and we’ll see a small spread of this energy across Southern NSW. No great size is however likely from this source. 

That’s about it for now - there’s a few other suggestions in the long term models for potential systems in remote swell windows (i.e. a possible tropical cyclone or hybrid low in the southern Coral Sea mid-late next week!) but at this stage they're too far away to be able to have any confidence in for Southern NSW. As such I’ll leave them for now and will reevaluate on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!