Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd February)

Best Days: Sunday: small NE swell and a late building S/SE swell though very inconsistent; winds look tricky too. Should hold through Monday. Wed/Thurs: punchy short range E/SE swell though winds may be onshore at times. 

Recap: Small weak surf, very uninspiring.

This weekend (Feb 4th - 5th)

No major changes to the weekend forecast.

If anything our small NE windswell has been pushed back a half day or so, thanks to a slower-than-expected developing fetch off the Mid North Coast tonight and into Saturday. This means Saturday is unlikely to see a late kick in size; instead we’re looking at small weak surf across all coasts, with light to moderate NE winds, possible variable for a period early morning.

As it is, we’re only looking at 1-2ft sets at NE facing beaches from this source through Sunday anyway, maybe the odd bigger bomb at a handful of reliable swell magnets. A complex pressure pattern across Southern NSW will result in variable winds about the region; possibly tending N’ly across the Hunter and Sydney regions but really, we could see just about any wind direction.

Of more interest on Sunday is the possibility of a small distant pulse of S/SE, from a stationary polar low earlier this week. ASCAT returns picked up small areas of 50kts winds though the fetch length wasn’t great, and the enormous travel distance will keep a lid on prospective surf size. 

As such I have slightly upgraded my size expectations for Sunday, though keep in mind that the sets will be extremely inconsistent. Starting from a very small base in the morning (with a dominant NE windswell), we should see a building trend throughout the day, particularly into the afternoon where reliable south swell magnets may rake in the odd 2ft+ bomb right on dark. However it’ll be a low percentage event so don’t spend too much time working around this swell as it may disappoint in some regions.

Next week (Feb 6th onwards)

Next week just got a whole lot more interesting.

But let’s kick off with Monday first. We’re looking at a similar combo of peaky NE swell and inconsistent, distant S/SE groundswell as per Sunday; around 1-2ft from the NE (odd bigger set at NE swell magnets) with 2ft+ bombs at south facing beaches. Light variable winds are expected for much of the day with a possible afternoon S'ly change. Expect long breaks between waves. 

Late afternoon, a surface trough is expected to develop off the Far South Coast and slowly move northwards. The models are suggesting an unusually thin, elongated fetch thanks to a broad supporting ridge to the south, and the slow northward track of this system is somewhat interesting as the fetch will hang in the swell window a little longer than usual, which should boost size prospects.

At this stage the fetch is expected to move into the Far South Coast and possibly South Coast’s swell window on Tuesday, but may not reach the Sydney and Hunter swell windows until Wednesday. So I’m unsure just when we’ll see an upwards trend but right now expectations are for small residual surf on Tuesday across locations north of the Illawarra. 

Moderate to fresh onshore winds will accompany the kick in swell (whenever it does happen) and this is the only negative from what could be a punchy short range event in the 4-5ft range by later Wednesday or early Thursday. Winds will ease as the trough moves north though, so conditions will improve later in the week. Size will ease from Thursday afternoon into Friday. 

Also in the mix next week will be a small undercurrent of E/NE swell, originating from a developing trade flow south of New Caledonia. No great size is expected from this source but we should see Monday’s NE swell replaced by this minor E/NE swell through Tuesday, holding into Friday with occasional sets in the 2ft range. 

Looking further ahead, and an anchored trade belt south of New Caledonia is showing promising signs for a more significant tropical development in our NE swell window later next week, possibly the merger between a broad depression and the northward advancing trough (responsible for our Wed/Thurs swell). As such later next weekend or early in the following week could be worth pencilling in for a decent NE swell event.. but I’ll have more on that on Monday.