Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 30th January)

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Best Days: No great days due to the small surf size. Tues probably the pick with a fun NE windswell and a period of light winds through mid/late morning.

Recap: A small distant south swell created fun 2ft waves across south facing beaches on Saturday, before a NE swell rounded out the second half of the weekend with peaky sets up to 2ft as well. Freshening N/NE winds on Saturday gave way to a shallow southerly change on Sunday. Today we’ve seen a continuation of N/NE windswell across Southern NSW around 2ft, with early light N’ly winds now refreshening from the NNE. The local windswell is slowly building in size too.

Peaky NE swell at Manly this afternoon

This week (Jan 31st - Feb 3rd)

Not much on the cards this week.

Our primary swell windows will remain devoid of significant swell generating activity so we’ll be relying on local flukey sources to keep the beaches active. 

Today’s N/NE breeze will strengthen towards a peak this evening before easing through Tuesday morning as a shallow trough change pushes up the coast, bringing a southerly change up to about Sydney latitudes or thereabouts. These overnight NE winds should kick up some more of what we’re seeing today, but the trend will ease through Tuesday - expect early 2-3ft+ sets at NE swell magnets through the morning, and with some luck the trough should create a period of variable winds allowing surface conditions to be quite reasonable.

The southerly change won’t haver a lot of strength some regions south of the Illawarra may see a few hours of gusty conditions but it should ease into the late afternoon. But for most Sydney/Hunter/Illawarra coasts the best conditions will probably happen through mid-late morning and maybe early afternoon.

Smaller levels of NE swell will then pad out Wednesday along with a similarly small mix of short range S’ly swell from the fetch trailing the change. Exposed beaches may see occasional 1-2ft sets but that’s about as good as it’s likely to get. Light variable winds are expected under a coastal troughy pattern so there should be a decent period of small peaky shore breaks if you’re keen.

As a side note, Tuesday and Wednesday may see very small, inconsistent lines from the south, originating from the stationary polar low that’s occupied the waters well S/SE of New Zealand for the last few weeks. 

The rest of the week will see very small surf from a variety of source, unfortunately without any major strength. The trades are broadening across the Northern Tasman Sea and we’ll see small levels of E/NE swell across Southern NSW (1-2ft max). A modest, stationary N’ly fetch off the Mid North Coast may generate very small NE swells for the region, and we may also see very small levels of refracted southerly groundswell from passing frontal systems in the Southern Ocean - though they’re poorly aligned so we won’t see much energy at all. 

Local winds on Thursday and Friday will remain variable under a continuing troughy pattern, possibly S’ly on Thursday then NE on Friday but without any major strength.

This weekend (Feb 4th - 5th)

Small swells are expected this weekend. The same sources mention above (modest trade flow, small polar low S/SE off New Zealand) will continue to generate very small, inconsistent lines for exposed beaches but there’s nothing worth working around.

The only source that could produce small fun waves is a minor restrengthening of the stationary N’ly fetch off the Mid North Coast. It’s not very well aligned and not expected to be very strong but could building small NE swells into the 2ft range through Sunday (smaller Saturday).

So all in all, another uninspiring weekend of waves ahead but let’s see what Wednesday’s forecast update has in store for us.

Next week (Feb 6th onwards)

Still nothing major on the long term charts either; the only source to consider for swell is the increasing trade flow across the Northern Tasman Sea. It won’t be very well aimed for our region but the upside is that these kinds of swell events - albeit small - are long lived, meaning we should see some persistent but just-rideable E/NE energy through most of next week.

Here’s hoping the charts spin off a decent Tasman Sea system before then though.