Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 23rd January)

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Best Days: Plenty of small waves most days, you'll just have to work around the wind. Thurs/Fri my pick so far, with a fun combo of S/SE swells with (probably) light winds. 

Recap: Saturday delivered large S’ly swells as expected with solid 6ft+ sets through the morning, though bumpy under a gusty S’ly breeze. Sunday delivered bigger-than-expected surf, being a combination of easing S’ly swell from Saturday and a new long range S/SE swell from a mid-week polar low south of New Zealand. Wave heights were mainly around the 4ft mark at most open south facing beaches though some bigger bombs were reported across the South Coast. This polar low has maintained strong sets around 3ft into today, in addition to a building NE windswell. Winds have freshened from the N/NE all day. 

Manly looking super fun this afternoon

This week (Tues Jan 24th - 27th)

The polar low responsible for some of yesterday’s and all of today’s southerly quadrant energy is an unusual system on many fronts. Firstly, stalled lows in this neck of the woods are rare (most weather systems become absorbed in the high latitude westerly flow), but more interestingly, we’ve seen several incarnations of development, each of which has contributed decent pulses to our region since last Thursday. And there's more to come too.

Today’s swell wil ease through Tuesday and Wednesday, probably maintaining background energy in the 1-2ft range at south facing beaches. However given yesterday’s and today’s over-performance (size wise) it’s fair to say there’s a reasonable chance surf size will come in a little higher. 

We’ll also see some peaky NE swell in the water. Given that sets are already 2-3ft from this source, and seeing that the N’ly fetch in our immediate swell window is expected to maintain overnight, we should see a little more size - somewhere around 3-4ft at reliable NE swell magnets on Tuesday. 

And the good news is that an approaching S’ly change (due into the Illawarra early/mid afternoon and Sydney mid-late afternoon) will bring about a NW wind change through Tuesday morning, then a period of variable winds around lunchtime. This should provide clean conditions at most coasts though bear in mind the advancing southerly change will confine the best waves to protected southern ends as it pushes through. There may be some northerly wobble through the early morning but it should improve as the day wears on.

Gusty but rapidly easing SE winds in the wake of the change early Wednesday morning will probably create below average conditions across most Hunter and some Sydney beaches, however lighter winds will ease around dawn from the Illawarra south, which should allow conditions to improve more quickly here. Wednesday’s surf will consist of small easing NE windswell (1-2ft), a small undercurrent of  long range S/SE swell (inconsistent 2ft sets) plus some building short range S’ly swell from the fetch trailing the change (3ft+ south facing beaches). As this fetch swings SE overnight, so too will the swell direction but no major quality is expected. If anything, aim for the afternoon for the best conditions. 

The parent low to this chance will be very intense but poorly aligned within our swell window. Most of the swell generated by it will be aimed towards New Zealand, with Australia's East Coast expected to see small glancing energy. This will fill into the South Coast late Wednesday, and remaining Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra beaches through Thursday. Occasional 2-3ft sets are likely at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter) and conditions are looking pretty good with light winds under a local troughy pattern.

Also in the water on Thursday will be yet another pulse of small long range SE swell from the aforementioned anchored polar fetch, well to the S/SE of New Zealand. It’ll probably mix in nicely with the pre-existing S’ly swell, and at some locations may create bigger waves as the two swell trains combine.

Friday looks pretty fun too. The models have a weak trough/possible low off the coast though it’s hard to tell if it’ll affect us much in the wind and weather department. However, we should see easing S and S/SE energy from Thursday, plus a small mid-range S/SE swell extending from a secondary intensification form the bottom of the low responsible for Thursday’s swell. At this stage inconsistent 2-3ft sets are expected at south facing beaches, and with some luck winds will remain light allowing clean conditions. 

This weekend (Jan 28th - 29th)

No major swells are on target for the weekend at this stage. The western Tasman Sea is expected to remain troughy so there’s certainly some potential for the models to upgrade this into a swell generating system, though we’ll need a few days to pin down the specific. 

Otherwise, the current outlook suggests easing swells from Friday and freshening northerly winds, and possible some local NE windswell.

Next week (Jan 30th onwards)

There’s nothing of major interest expected across the region long term though it’s worth noting that the trades are finally expected to make a (welcome, and overdue) return across the northern Tasman Sea, from this weekend onwards. Whilst this pattern mainly favours SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, it also suggests we’ll see a return to more climatic summer patterns of small trade swells across open beaches in Southern NSW.

Also, as mentioned on Friday the recent polar activity south and Stouh-east of New Zealand is also popping up in the model runs suggesting we’ll continue to see useful energy from this largely overlooked and somewhat underrated swell window.