Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 28th December)

Best Days: Thurs: fun peaky NE swell with a brief period of early light NW winds. Fri/Sat: smaller NE swell with similar winds Fri, becoming varibale Sat.

Recap: Peaky NE swell around 2-3ft on Tuesday and Wednesday with freshening NE winds each day.

This week (Dec 29th - 30th)

No changes to the current pattern, or Monday’s outlook notes either. 

The current NE fetch is ebbing and flowing off our coast and will continue to display similar tendencies over the next 48 hours, if anything as a slightly weaker version of what’s been on display for the last few days. 

The strongest phase of this setup will occur overnight tonight so Thursday morning will consequently see the largest surf, with wave heights peaking around 3ft+ at reliable NE swell magnets. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the north-east (i.e. south facing beaches) and also across many Newcastle beaches owing the swell shadow afforded by the Hunter curve.

Local winds will be a little lighter and we may also see brief periods of NW winds at dawn, however they’ll regain strength from the north and then possible N/NE throughout the day. Winds should be light and variable with sea breezes south of the Illawarra. So aim for the morning size on Thursday as it should be reasonably clean on the surface.

Surf size will ease a smidgen into the afternoon and hold steady on Friday, mainly 2ft at most open beaches but very occasionally up to 2-3ft at NE swell magnets at times. Similar winds are likely as per Thursday.

This weekend (Dec 31st - Jan 1st)

I’m still not expecting much in the way of quality surf this weekend.

A shallow trough will move into Southern NSW on Saturday morning, disrupting the NE fetch and resulting in a steady easing trend from this direction all weekend. Some reliable NE swell magnets may see early 2-3ft sets but for the most part we’re looking at 2ft surf on Saturday easing to 1-2ft by Sunday. 

There won’t be any fetch trailing the trough so we don’t have any south swell on the cards either, so most beaches will be small and lacklustre by late Saturday or Sunday.

As for local winds, were looking at variable conditions all weekend. Some locations may see a brief period of southerly winds early Saturday but I don’t think there’ll be much in it, and sea breezes are expected through the afternoon. Sunday should see light variable winds and sea breezes again.

Next week (Jan 2nd onwards)

There’s still nothing significant standing out in the long term outlook.

Another shallow southerly change is expected to clip the coast on Monday morning; there’ll be no immediate fetch behind it but the parent low (SE of Tasmania) will display a modest SW fetch through the lower Tasman Sea and this may kick up a small south swell for Tuesday. 

So, Monday afternoon has an outside chance for a small, weak windswell and Tuesday morning may see a few slightly stronger sets around the 2ft mark from the south, but that’s about it.

Monday’s trough is modelled to stall across the Mid North Coast on Tuesday and may develop into a more significant swell generating system in future model updates but right now it’s not looking particularly flash - mainly small local swell with SE winds through Tuesday across the Sydney and Hunter region (light variable winds south of here).

Otherwise, the broader synoptic charts remain quite unstable but without any specific weather systems to hone in on. We have an active monsoon crossing the northern part of the country next week and this is expected to instigate new tropical depressions and/or tropical cyclones through the Coral Sea and South Pacific over the coming weeks. As such this region is probably our most reliable source of long range swell but there’s simply nothing to work with at the moment.

See you Friday - hopefully with some better news!