Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th December)

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Best Days: Sat: small mix of swells with winds tending offshore. Mon: small/mod S'ly swell with early light winds. Wed: mix of E/NE, NE and S'ly swells with early light winds. 

Recap: Onshore winds spoiled surface conditions on Thursday, but we’ve seen an improvement throughout today with winds becoming light and variable during the day and a fun S’ly groundswell producing occasional 2-3ft sets at south facing beaches. 

This weekend (Dec 17th - 18th)

The models are a little more confident for a fun NE swell on Saturday than I am.

Don’t get me wrong. In Wednesday’s notes I mentioned we’d see a small NE swell for the early session around 2ft, originating from an overnight N’ly fetch off the Mid North Coast. I still think it’ll happen, but our surf model is going for 2-3ft sets early morning and I’m a little suss on the upper end of this size range. A handful of reliable swell magnets - possibly. But I forsee most open beaches coming in a little under (modeled) spec.

Nevertheless, conditions will be clean with winds swinging to the NW through the morning, which will iron out the bumps within the first few hours of the day. 

There’ll also be a small trailing south swell in the water from today, probably some inconsistent 2ft sets with occasional 2-3ft bombs across the Hunter. Both swells will ease throughout the day so aim for the morning session for the biggest waves. 

Late afternoon, a gusty S’ly change will reach the Far South and South Coasts, probably nosing into the Sydney region around early evening. Wind strengths trailing the change have been ramped up a touch since Wednesday (though modelled wave heights haven’t?) but nonetheless I’m slightly upgrading my estimates for surf size on Sunday.

South facing beaches should see a brief peak through the middle of the morning with size around the 4-5ft range, and a much smaller combo of rapidly easing NE swell and refracted S’ly swell at remaining beaches. Gusty S’ly winds early morning will ease throughout the day and become light to moderate into the afternoon, so despite a slow easing trend after lunch, the late session will probably be your best option (winds will ease more rapidly in the south too, so there could be a longer window of workable conditions here). 

I don’t like the chances of an early SW breeze on Sunday but it’s possible that a few select locations such as the Northern Beaches could see some topographical influence for a few hours around dawn. 

Either way, there’ll be waves both days - keep an eye on the cams and the obs and you’ll do OK.

Next week (Dec 19th onwards)

The parent low to Sunday’s short range S’ly swell will generate a better, longer period south swell for Monday, as it intensifies SE of Tasmania through Saturday night and Sunday morning. The early conditions are looking excellent with light variable winds ahead of a NE sea breeze but the swell will provide a brief peak with sets around the 3-4ft mark at south facing beaches (there could be a brief lag on this swell at dawn too). Expect much smaller surf at remaining beaches. Size will then ease throughout the afternoon following a likely peak around midday or thereabouts.

Unfortunately, this deep Southern Ocean low will rotate out of our swell window, with almost all of the fetch aimed into New Zealand - which is a shame as it's expected to display some spectacular wind strengths. The tail of its south-western flank may offer a small degree of spread as it winds up through Sunday and Monday however in general I’m not expecting much southerly energy from this system from Tuesday onwards. Model guidance is showing some small S/SE energy at 14-15 seconds on Tuesday but I’d be surprised if we saw much more than a very occasional 2-3ft set at reliable south swell magnets, with much smaller surf elsewhere. This will then ease into Wednesday.

However around this time we will also start to see some small E/NE swell spread across Southern NSW, originating from a broad eagerly fetch around the southern flank of TD04F (a tropical depression currently delivering a deluge to Fiji) which may be upgraded to a Category 1 Tropical Cyclone this evening. 

The cyclone will only be short lived at best but the supporting ridge to the south is well established and should generate a very useful trade swell for SE Qld and Northern NSW, with a smaller spread reaching Southern NSW. This should build through Tuesday and into Wednesday, and exposed beaches may see set waves somewhere between 2-3ft at times. 

Expect a very slow easing from this source through Thursday and Friday - but still enough to keep most beaches active with fun small waves (local winds pending).

In fact, the models are suggesting the remnants of this system may form a broad trough north of New Zealand mid-next week which could result in a slight boost in size later next week or into the weekend. Let’s wait and see how Monday’s model runs are looking before getting too excited about that.

Otherwise, Tuesday will also see some building short range NE swell in the water from a local fetch off the coast. This will ease through Wednesday, before a S’ly change kick in late afternoon and builds a short range S’ly swell for Thursday. Local winds look dicey Tuesday under the freshening nor'easter but Wednesday should see a decent window of clean conditions before the southerly pushes into the region. Thursday and Friday will probably see light to moderate onshores. 

So overall, we have five or six individual swell sources on tap for next week - your best chance at scoring fun waves will be to work around the local wind outlook. Let’s fine tune the specifics on Monday. 

Have a great weekend!