Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 9th October)

Best Days: Sat: building NE swell with NE tending N'ly then NW winds throughout the afternoon. Best options very late in the day. Tues/Wed: strong S'ly swell.

Recap: Monday’s southerly swell eased steadily through Tuesday and levelled out today with 1-2ft waves and moderate to fresh southerly winds. 

This week (Nov 10th - 11th)

No major surf is expected for the rest of the week. 

A stalled trough over the Mid North Coast has a small SE fetch across its southern flank but it’s not expected to generate any notable swell for Thursday. Inconsistent 1.5-2ft+ sets are possible at south facing beaches in the morning but it’ll diminish throughout the day and further into Friday.

As alluded to in Monday’s notes there’s an outside chance for a few stray sets at exposed south facing beaches over the coming days, originating from a powerful but poorly aligned low south of Tasmania earlier this week. However I’m doubtful we’ll see much, if any size from this source. 

Winds for the next few days are expected to be variable - which means any direction - though early offshores and afternoon sea breezes is the most likely outcome. 

This weekend (Nov 12th - 13th)

We’ve still got some building NE swell in store for Saturday.

However local winds look a little dicey - a trough is expected to cross the coast during the day, swinging the wind from the NE to the N and then eventually the NW but it may not become favourable until late in the day. 

After starting from a smal base, surf size should increase to 2-3ft throughout the day (models haven’t ramped up the strength of this fetch, but it’s still possible over the coming days), however we’re not likely to see a lot of strength in the surf unless the fetch consolidates itself a little more later this week.

Looking towards Sunday, and the models have significantly delayed the west-east passage of the broader parent low, so Sunday’s potential south swell has been wiped off the charts - and may not eventuate until overnight Monday or possibly even Tuesday at the earliest. 

However, there is one other source of swell for the weekend - a small mid-range S’ly swell, originating from a broad but ultimately modest SW fetch locations south of Tasmania from late tonight through Thursday and Friday. As per Monday's notes, ordinarily I’d discount this as a reliable source but the fetch size is quite impressive (despite the low wind speeds) and it could provide a useful undercurrent of S’ly swell in the 2ft range from later Saturday through Sunday, though sets will be very inconsistent and only reliable south swell magnets will pick up any rideable energy.

Next week (Nov 14th onwards)

The broadscale low pushing across the SE corner of the country this weekend is very complex and there’s a couple of swell sources for next week to keep tabs on over the coming days.

First up, the southern flank looks quite dynamic with a strong easterly infeed expected to generate solid NE tending E’ly swells for Tasmania’s East Coast. Model guidance has this fetch aimed well south of Southern NSW (let alone the Sydney region), so there's little to no swell potential for us right now - but it’ll be worth keeping an eye to see if it changes over the coming days, as we’ve already seen some major revisions in the synoptics since Monday’s notes were issued. 

Otherwise, it looks like the western flank of this broad system will enter the western Tasman Sea later Monday, giving an outside chance for a minor southerly swell increase very late Monday ahead of a more robust building trend on Tuesday, peaking later afternoon and into Wednesday morning that should reach 4-6ft at south facing beaches - albeit with fresh winds out of the southern quadrant. Wednesday morning currently looks the pick with winds likely to be W/SW for a brief period early.

Easing swells are then expected for the second half of next week.

More on this in Friday’s update!