Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 2nd September)

Best Days: Sat: peaky NE swell with winds tending offshore during the morning. Sun: good S'ly swell with offshore winds. Mon/Tues/Wed: smaller S'ly swell with mainly good winds. 

Recap: Small waves have padded out the last two days and winds have been generally light and variable, though freshening SE thru’ S'ly winds have developed across the northern Illawarra and southern Sydney region (south of the Harbour) as a trough of low pressure approaches from the west.

This weekend (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th)

No changes to the weekend forecast.

We have three swell events on the cards. I’ll get the smallest, least interesting energy out the way early - a minor south swell due Saturday, from a moderate front that tracked north-east through the Southern Ocean on Thursday and into the Lower Tasman Sea this morning. No great size is expected from this source though exposed south swell magnets may pick up a couple of feet at times, however set waves will be extremely inconsistent.

Otherwise, strengthening N’ly winds along the eastern seaboard tonight will generate a peaky short range swell that should reach maximum size on Saturday, sometime between early morning and lunch across most beaches between Newcastle and Wollongong.  

Due to the position of the core fetch, and the way swells bend into Southern NSW relative to the Hunter curve, it’s likely that we’ll see increasing surf size as you track south from Newcastle (which will see the smallest wave heights). Precise wave heights are hard to have complete confidence in but it seems reasonable for 2ft waves in Newcastle, 2ft+ across the Central Coast, 2-3ft at NE facing beaches in Sydney, then 3-4ft across the Illawarra coast and 4-5ft across the South Coast (note: wave heights will peak a little later south of Wollongong, due to the longer travel time). 

Otherwise, beaches not open to the north-east (i.e. south facing beaches) will see smaller waves, being a combination of this NE swell and the aforementioned S'ly swell. 

Fortunately, Saturday’s conditions are looking pretty good. As the inland surface trough pushes off the coast, a deep low is expected to form off the Far South Coast. This will swing overnight N’ly winds around to the NW just prior to dawn, then a W/NW tending W’ly trend should settle in throughout the day.

South of about Wollongong, we’ll see more of a W’ly breeze and then the Far South Coast will experience a period of W/SW thru’ SW gales as the low winds up in the morning. They’ll ease a little during the day and then straighten up from the west.

The Far South Coast should also see a return southerly swell build rapidly throughout Saturday afternoon, though there probably won’t be much to show before lunchtime. S'ly gales about the western flank of the low are expected to develop off the coast around mid-morning, so we should see some action in the surf zone from early afternoon onwards, with solid 4-5ft+ sets at south swell magnets. 

This south swell will move up the Southern NSW coast but I’m skeptical it’ll reach much further north than about Wollongong by the end of the day. 

As such, with the south swell reaching most other regions overnight, Sunday morning is a better chance to see some action across Sydney and Hunter coasts. We’ll see an initial peak in direct S’ly swell from the low in the morning (easing during the day) but it’ll be supplemented by a reinforcing S’ly swell from a trailing SW fetch around the northern flank of the low throughout the day. 

This should maintain 3-4ft surf at south facing beaches all day (a little bigger in the Hunter) however the early morning period may see a few bigger sets across all beaches north of Wollongong, originating from the core of the low. Expect smaller surf at NE facing beaches, as there’s expected to be very little leftover NE swell (1ft+ across most Sydney beaches, maybe some stray 2ft+ sets south from Wollongong early morning). 

Surface conditions are looking great on Sunday with light variable winds and sea breezes. So all in all - a pretty fun weekend of waves ahead. 

Next week (Monday 5th onwards)

Broad W/SW winds across the lower Tasman on Sunday in the wake of the South Coast low will maintain plenty of south swell to start the week, probably somewhere in the 2-3ft range across most south facing beaches and up to 3-4ft across the Hunter region.

Conditions are looking pretty good with light winds and sea breezes. 

Small but persistent long period S’ly energy is then expected through Tuesday and Wednesday, originating from a broad but poorly aligned storm track through the Southern Ocean over the weekend. The saving grace of this progression is its width, plus the strength of the surface winds (leading to higher swell periods) which should help to boost wave heights at south swell magnets. Our surf forecast model is bottoming out during these days in its latest run, but I think we’ll see very occasional 2ft to maybe 3ft sets at reliable exposed beaches facing due south. Let’s take a closer look on Monday to see if we can pinpoint the exact arrival times of each pulse. 

The longer term outlook has moved around a little since Wednesday’s notes, and the second half of next week is now shaping up for a broad ridge to develop across the Northern Tasman Sea which should supply mid-range E/NE swell across Southern NSW next weekend and beyond. Prior to this we may also see a short range NE swell across the coast around Friday. 

More on all of this in Monday’s notes. Have a great weekend!