Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 17th August)

Best Days: Small surf for the next four days. Chance for some small long period E/NE swell early next week plus some small S'ly swell. 

Recap: So - that long range, long period S’ly swell rocked up yesterday pretty much bang on time and size expectations, which was a great relief (see surfcam grab from 2pm Tuesday at Bondi, below). This swell then eased overnight but there’ve still been occasional residual sets at exposed south swell magnets throughout the day. There’s also a minor E’ly signal in the water today, which is actually the result of a broad but poorly aligned trade belt to our north (it was mentioned in last Friday’s notes but then discounted on Monday due to a model downgrade). However it seems to be performing a little better than expected. Winds have been light both mornings with moderate N/NE sea breezes.

Bondi showing yesterday’s long period south swell nicely. Watch it live here.

This week (Thurs 18th - Fri 19th August)

No major swells are expected for the rest of the working week, due to an absence of major weather systems in our swell windows in recent days.

Model data is maintaining minor E’ly energy into Thursday and Friday, at about the same size and period as per today (though tailing off slightly during this period). As such, despite the low confidence in the swell source, it seems fair to maintain a reasonable expectation for slow, inconsistent sets between 1ft and maybe 1-2ft at exposed beaches on Thursday, trending a little smaller into Friday.

Expect long breaks between sets, and freshening N’ly winds each afternoon following a period of lighter NW winds in the morning. I wouldn't be surprised if many beaches were tiny to flat.

This weekend (Sat 20th - Sun 21st August)

We’ve had a major downwards revision for Sunday's south swell.

The expected weather system is still expected to develop, in fact we're likely to see a ‘bombing low’ form in the Southern Ocean over the coming days - but unfortunately on the wrong side of Tasmania. The models have slowed this low's west-east track, and have instead focused its energy up into Victoria. As such, we’re looking at an epic weekend of waves in Victoria - check out Craig’s detailed forecast notes here.

But back to our neck of the woods… Friday’s late freshening northerly may whip up a minor windswell for early Saturday but the fetch will be transiting out of our swell window early in the piece so any energy we see will be very small, very weak, and short lived. Fresh W’ly tending W/SW winds will keep conditions nice and clean.

Small residual E/NE swell from the trade flow in our north-east swell window may keep exposed beaches from becoming flat throughout the weekend, but sets will be extremely inconsistent and will only favour reliable swell magnets. It’s hard to imagine much more than a lazy 1-2ft tops at open stretches - probably smaller - and likely flat at many beaches. 

Elsewhere, a modest W/SW fetch exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday may generate a small S’ly swell for Sunday but at this stage I’d be surprised if it were much bigger than 1-2ft. Again, conditions will be clean with light offshore winds.

Here’s hoping the models do an about-face by Friday but at this stage it’s looking like a quiet weekend on the surf front. 

Next week (Monday 22nd onwards)

There are two regions to keep a watch on for early next week.

First off - the bombing Southern Ocean low that’s expected to develop west of Tasmania later this week will eventually slide into our southern swell window over the weekend, albeit in a weakened state. We’ll see some small southerly swell push through Monday and Tuesday though no major size is expected, maybe the odd 2-3ft set at exposed south swell magnets but I can’t see much more than that. 

Certainly nowhere near the quality experienced in recent south swells, anyway.

Otherwise, we have some interesting developments in the South Pacific. A trough/low that formed off the NW coast of New Zealand this week is slowly tracking north and now east of the country, and will then slide back down to the south-east over the weekend whilst undergoing a secondary intensification.

Unfortunately, most of this will occur as the low slips into the swell shadow of New Zealand. It’s likely that northern reaches of the East Coast - the Sunshine, Gold and maybe Far Northern NSW Coasts - will see plenty of E’ly swell from this system during the first half of next week, however locations further south will see much less size. I am concerned that we may not see very much energy at all across Southern NSW.

Nevertheless, this will be a strong and reasonably lengthy swell event, and all it takes is a minor northerly shift in the position of the low to greatly improve Southern NSW’s chances of waves. So let’s wait and see what Friday’s update has in store for next week. 

Otherwise, we’re looking at funky local swell sources as a mid-latitude system slides across inland NSW early in the week, possibly developing a surface low off Southern NSW around Wednesday or Thursday. So much potential, but so little confidence…

See you Friday!