Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 6th July)

Best Days: Tues: early morning whilst winds are offshore. Wed/Thurs: fun but very inconsistent south swell with mainly light winds. 

Recap: Plenty of great waves all days as a series of south swells provided excellent surf across south facing beaches, with clean conditions thanks to a light offshore breeze each day. Unfortunately today’s pulse (what, the fourth or fifth south swell in the last week or so?) came in smaller than expected although most south facing beaches saw clean 3-4ft waves, and bigger bombs in the Hunter. 

This week (July 7 - 10)

The southerly swell regime is still motoring along quite nicely.

Today’s swell is expected to ease slightly overnight and into Tuesday, and you’ll have to make the most of the morning session as a shallow front is expected to track along the coast, bringing a moderate to fresh S/SE change to all regions throughout the day.

It’s expected across the South Coast mid-late morning, up into the Illawarra around lunchtime then Sydney early afternoon; ahead of it we’ll see freshening W/SW tending SW winds and south facing beaches will have the biggest waves. Just like today they’ll be very inconsistent, more so in the 2-3ft range with smaller surf elsewhere but occasional bombs in the Hunter. 

This front is associated with a broader system that's currently tracking up through from polar latitudes to the southern Tasman Sea, and although it’s not very strong (in core strength) it is a little better aligned than Friday’s model runs depicted. This will supply a renewal of south swell through both Wednesday and Thursday, generally in the 3ft+ range at south facing beaches with smaller waves elsewhere.

It's also worth pointing out that ordinarily, I sometimes forecast slightly above our model's estimates because it often doesn't pick up these kinds of south swells very well (for example, the weekend's 3-4ft+ surf was estimated at just 2ft). But for this coming Wednesday and Thursday, I'm going to pull back my estimates against the model - it's forecasting 4ft surf at south facing beaches, but I think it'll be closer to 3ft+. The reason for my decision is that while the wave model's estimates look good on paper (1.9m @ 10+sec), I'm a little worried that the core fetch looks a little weaker than I'd prefer it to be, considering the distance this swell is expected to travel. Therefore, gut feeling tells me this event may slightly underperform as per the model output. 

Regardless, the Hunter region should see bigger sets at times, and conditions are looking quite reasonable both days with light variable winds - if anything perhaps a few leftover lumps early Wednesday, from Tuesday's change. However it will be a little slow and quite inconsistent at times, so the open beaches will probably be your best choice as they’ll handle the wide range of swell heights and periods best.

This swell will then ease into Friday with small, weak leftovers of around 2ft+ at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter) and freshening northerly winds as a trough approaches from the west. So, make the most of the mid-week swell. There’s a chance for a small NE windswell late Friday but it’s only a low percentage number at this point. 

This weekend (July 11 - 12)

The weekend looks like a real mixed bag. A vigorous front will push behind the approaching trough and this will freshen northerly winds ahead of a gusty W’ly tending S/SW change at some point. 

The surf potential hinges on the timing and position of this change. Right now we have only one option for Saturday, and it’s a flimsy outlook at best right now - hopefully the pre-frontal northerly airstream will whip up a small NE windswell, and we’ll see a brief period where the westerly change hits and there’s some small clean peaky options across open beaches. But that’s very optimistic in its thinking, as there’s more than an equal chance that we’ll see very little surf and offshore winds. 

Sunday’s potential surf originates from the opposite end of the compass. Once the front clears east of the NSW coast, we’ll see strong S/SW winds generate a sizeable short range swell. This is currently pegged for Monday, but Sunday afternoon can’t be ruled out at this early stage. 

So, let’s see how Wednesday’s model run updates are tracking. For now though, if you had to bet the house I’d be dusting off the fishing rods. 

Next week (July 13 onwards)

As mentioned above, we’ve got a solid south swell due early next week, thanks to a developing Tasman Low in association with a passing cold front. Quality doesn’t look too special but we could see plenty of size, upwards of 6ft at south facing beaches. 

Beyond this, the broader long wave pattern suggests we’ll see similar weather systems pushing through our short range south swell window for much of next week, which suggests a lot of southerly swell, and probably a lot of accompanying wind locally too. This is fairly typical for winter, so chances are in favour that it’ll eventuate. More on this in Friday’s update.