Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th September)

Best Days: No great days, really. Saturday will have a small south swell at exposed beaches, and mainly light winds ahead of a sea breeze. Early Tuesday is probably the pick of the forecast period with a fun south swell and early light winds ahead of a gusty nor'easter.

Recap: Small and clean but rapidly easing short range NE swell on Thursday with offshore winds. Small junky low quality southerly swell today with onshore winds. Both days forgettable.

This weekend (Sep 13-14)

Overall it’s a pretty good weekend to consider non-surfing activities. Today’s low quality south swell will be on the way out on Saturday, to be replaced by a similarly small, inconsistent south swell during the morning. 

It has originated from a broad but unfavourably aligned fetch below Tasmania over the last few days, and won’t contribute much more than lazy, sporadic 2ft sets across south facing beaches in Sydney, and perhaps a little more size up in the Hunter. Expect smaller surf at beaches not open to the south.

Conditions should be reasonably good in the morning with light variable winds, but NE breezes will develop from mid-late morning onwards, adding some bumps in the afternoon. So, get in early and aim for an exposed south swell magnets early morning if you’re desperate.

Sunday will see this small south swell fade, leaving tiny residual energy across open beaches, probably around a foot. Winds are expected to freshen from the N/NW in the morning, and then tend variable in the afternoon as a shallow southerly change makes its way along the South Coast. We may see this change into Sydney late afternoon but it won’t have any bearing on the surf, because there probably won’t be any!

Next week (Sep 15-19)

Bit of an average week ahead for the East Coast. We’re looking at tiny residual surf on Monday ahead of a fresh pulse of S/SE swell on Tuesday, generated by a small but tight low rounding the Tasmanian corner over the weekend before pushing up into the southern Tasman Sea. 

However the latest model guidance has wound the strength of the low back a notch and kept it marginally further south than previous guidance, which leads me to knock a little more size off Wednesday’s predictions. We should see some 3ft sets at south facing beaches (smaller elsewhere due to the swell direction) and light winds at dawn will freshen from the N/NE during the day so get in early for the best waves. 

Expect a slow easing trend out of the S/SE through Wednesday, with winds swinging W/SW then SW as a weak trough moves off the coast. In fact we may also see a small NE windswell in the water on Wednesday (originating from Tuesday afternoon’s developing fetch off the coast) but I don’t think we’ll see much more than a foot or two in Sydney; perhaps a little more size on the South Coast.

A small south swell may develop off the backside of this eastward-tracking trough (arriving overnight Wednesday, easing through Thursday) but no great size is expected at this stage. Perhaps 2ft+ south facing beaches if we're super lucky, and nought elsewhere.

Otherwise, Friday looks like it’ll finish off the week with a whimper - there are no major swells on the cards for the second half of next week at this stage.

Longer term (Sep 20 onwards)

I’ve got my eye on an unusual little cut off low modelled to develop well south of the Tasman Sea mid-next week, and track unusually N/NE into the south-eastern corner of the Tasman Sea. Assuming there’ll be some changes in the model output, this system could very well develop into a significant SE swell producer for the region later next week or (more likely) next weekend. More on this in Monday’s update.