Southern Tasmanian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday February 17th)

Best Days: Every morning this week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S/SE swell tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of a strong SW change late AM
• Mix of W/SW and SW groundswells on Wed with N/NW tending W/SW winds
• Reinforcing mid-period SW swell Thu/Fri, easing Sat
• W/NW tending W/SW winds Thu with N/NW winds Fri ahead of weak sea breezes
• Strengthening N/NE winds Sat with N/NW tending W/NW winds Sun

Recap

Conditions were doable Saturday morning with a cross-shore wind and small lift in swell to 1-2ft, while stronger onshore winds kicked in by later morning, persisting yesterday with a bit more swell.

This morning we saw cleaner conditions and good 2ft surf that kicked further this afternoon with the arrival of a new S/SE swell.

This week and weekend (Feb 18 - 23)

This afternoon’s increase in S/SE swell will ease back through tomorrow from 2ft under a great N/NW breeze before a trough brings a strong SW change later in the morning. Surf before then.

This change will kick up some local windswell that’s due to then ease into Wednesday as some better, SW groundswell fills in.

The source was a strong but weakening low pushing along the polar shelf the last couple of days and a fun 2ft of swell is due again into Wednesday with a window of N/NW winds before shifting W/SW and strengthening through the day as a polar front clips the state.

This polar front will generate a healthy fetch of strong W’ly winds that will stretch out below the country over the coming days, producing fun 2ft+ waves from Thursday through Friday before easing back from 2ft on Saturday morning.

Winds each morning look favourable and offshore from the W/NW on Thursday before slipping back to the W/SW, with N/NW winds due on Friday ahead of weak sea breezes. Strengthening N/NE winds on Saturday as the swell eases will limit options ahead of a shift in winds Sunday from the N/NW to W/NW.

Longer term, a strong low forming north of our swell window in the Bight will drop south-east and across us early next week, bringing with it a localised increase in SW swell. More on this Wednesday.