Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday January 3rd)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning, possibly late Sunday, dawn Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-mod sized W/SW swell for this afternoon, easing tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Small SW swell for Sun, peaking in the PM, easing Mon
• SE tending gusty S/SE winds Sun, possibly variable later
• Dawn N/NW tending strong S/SW-SW winds Mon
• Small swell Tue with S/SW winds

Recap

Yesterday started small and slow but the swell kicked strongly into the afternoon with a window of decent conditions before mid-afternoon sea breezes kicked in.

This morning the swell was on the ease and back to 2ft with morning offshores ahead of gusty sea breezes.

This weekend and next week (Jan 4 - 10)

Our good pulse of reinforcing W/SW swell for this afternoon is on track, with it generated by a tight and intense low forming on the back of the storm activity linked to yesterday’s and today’s swell.

A lift back to 2-3ft is due this afternoon but with the sea breeze, easing from 2ft+ tomorrow morning under a N/NE offshore ahead of sea breezes.

The secondary small pulse of new SW swell for Sunday is also still on track, but so are the deteriorating conditions thanks to a freshening S/SE wind that might be lighter SE at dawn.

These funky winds will be linked to a low moving across us and there’s a chance for winds to back off late afternoon/evening when the swell peaks.

The source of the swell will be a strong, late forming low to our south-west today, with a small tight fetch of W/NW gales not expected to produce much over 2ft through the day before easing Monday from a similar size on the sets.

Conditions look good at dawn Monday with a N/NW offshore but a trough will bring a strong S/SW-SW change by mid-morning so go early.

Apart from a weak SW swell Tuesday along with strong S/SW winds, there’s nothing of note at all for the rest of next week. So make the most of the clean conditions tomorrow morning. Have a great weekend!