Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 9th)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small W/SW swell tomorrow and Wed with fresh NW-W/NW tending strong SW winds tomorrow, strengthening NW tending W/NW Wed
• Moderate sized SW groundswell for Thu, peaking in the PM with early N/NW tending S winds mid-late AM ahead of sea breezes
• Easing swell Fri with NW winds, tending S/SW and strengthening into the PM
• Fading swell Sat with W/SW-SW winds

Recap

Saturday was tiny and to 1ft, with the swell bottoming out yesterday morning before building again into the afternoon.

Today we’ve got a peak in mid-period W/SW swell to 2ft with favourable winds.

This week and weekend (Dec 10 - 15)

Today’s peak in swell will be followed by smaller levels of mid-period W/SW energy over the coming days to 1-2ft, generated by a weak stream of frontal systems moving in from the west.

Conditions will be best tomorrow morning with a fresh NW-W/NW tending strong SW breeze due tomorrow afternoon, strengthening NW tending W/NW on Wednesday.

This strengthening breeze through Wednesday will be thanks to one of the frontal systems strengthening directly west of us, producing a fetch of W/SW gales (possibly severe-gale at the core) through our western and then south-western swell windows.

This will produce a moderate sized pulse of swell for Thursday to 4ft+ across Clifton during the afternoon, with early N/NW winds expected to shift S’ly mid-late morning ahead of sea breezes.

The slow movement of the low should see sets holding 3ft Friday morning before fading into the weekend. Morning NW winds will again create clean conditions Friday ahead of a S/SW change, with lingering W/SW winds possibly Saturday.

Longer term the outlook is slow so make the most of the coming swell.