South Arm Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday November 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• New swell Tuesday but with tricky winds (generally onshore, maybe a brief variable window mid-late morning)
• Small with easing onshores Wednesday
• Quality new swell Thursday with offshore winds
• Easing, fun surf with light winds Fri/Sat
• Nothing major on the long term radar

Recap

Tiny conditions have persisted across the region for the last three days.

This week (Nov 19 - 22)

A new S/SW swell sourced from a polar low will build across the coast into Tuesday, but local winds will create some issues on the surface. 

Overnight onshore winds will gradually ease back through the early part of Tuesday morning and should become light W’ly by mid-late morning, however we’re expecting the breeze to freshen from the south into the afternoon. As such, expect lumpy conditions at best and more likely bumpy conditions at times.

Surf size should build into the 2-3ft mark during the day. Keep your expectations low and you’ll do OK.

Easing size and gradually lighter W’ly winds are then due Wednesday morning before southerlies redevelop around lunchtime.

Thursday is still shaping up to deliver some great waves.

Winds are due to swing light N’ly as a high pressure system sets up camp off the east coast, and a new long range SW groundswell will make landfall, sourced from a deep polar low currently below West Oz. Sets will be very inconsistent but should build to 3-4ft throughout the day. 

Size will then slowly ease into Friday with light winds keeping conditions clean, with plenty of decent waves on offer.

This weekend (Nov 23 - 34)

Fun surf is expected on Saturday with another polar low providing a renewal of 2-3ft surf on Saturday as light northerly winds persist, thanks to a broad region of low pressure developing to the state’s west. 

Smaller surf on Sunday may be accompanied with flukey winds as the trough starts to influence the coastal margin, but at this stage there should still be enough energy for a few small waves. 

Next week (Nov 25 onwards)

A small sideband swell from yet another polar low is due next Monday and Tuesday but no major size is expected as the low is not expected to line up particularly well within our swell window. Small waves are likely though. 

Otherwise, there are no major swell systems on the long term radar. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.