South Arm Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday November 15th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very small clean surf this weekend, not much around though, becoming tiny to flat throughout Sunday 
• Small and windy Monday
• Fun new lumpy swell Tuesday with early light winds
• Very good groundswell Thurs/Fri with generally light winds

Recap

A small new swell built in size Thursday afternoon and persisted this morning with slow 1-2ft sets, easing into the afternoon. There wasn’t much quality on offer though. Winds have been generally light early, with freshening W/SW tending SW winds Thursday and E/SE tending E/NE winds this afternoon.

This weekend (Nov 16 - 17)

Small easing surf is expected over the weekend with strengthening N/NE winds on Saturday tending N/NW through Sunday ahead of a late W’ly change. 

A minor trailing pulse of swell is due to push through on Saturday but I’m not expecting much more than a foot to a foot and a half at best. Given today’s easing trend, it may be smaller early morning ahead of the arrival of this new swell. Easing size is then due into Sunday.

Keep your expectations low and plan to do something away from the coast.

Next week (Nov 18 onwards)

OK, I’m gonna further downgrade my outlook for the Monday swell.

The cut-off low developing west of the state this weekend will be aimed north of our swell window during its most active phase. Additionally, the models are now trending towards a disjointed multi-centered setup, essentially cutting off the primary low from polar latitudes, and developing two individual swell generating systems rather than one long fetch with an intense core, as was predicted a few days earlier. 

So, we won't see any swell from it.

The secondary fetch (a polar front that will evolve into a low below the state on Sunday) will reach peak strength on Monday, and therefore generate a reasonable but short-lived S/SW swell for Tuesday (2-3ft) before easing Wednesday.

Tuesday’s conditions should be workable with Monday’s gusty onshores abating overnight and becoming light and variable. So, we should have some peaky, lumpy waves around the South Arm (though keep an eye out for a late afternoon SW change as another front passes below the state).

Looking further out, and Thursday’s still shaping up to be really good.

A new SW groundswell is expected to fill in during the morning, generated by a strong polar low developing east of Heard Island from Sunday onwards (and gaining strength rapidly below West Oz - see below). This should kick up inconsistent 3-4ft sets across the South Arm that’ll persist into Friday, and local winds are looking favourably light at this stage. 

Looking beyond this and a small spell is finally on the cards for the following week. 

Have a great weekend! See you Monday.