Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday October 2nd)

Best Days: No days

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong S/SW winds Thu with a building windswell, increasing further Fri with strong SW-S/SW winds
• Large SW groundswell building Fri, peaking in the PM, easing out of the S/SW Sat and Sun
• Moderate W/SW tending stronger S/SW winds Sat, SW tending gusty S/SE Sun

Recap

Nice conditions with a drop in swell back from 2ft on Saturday, tiny yesterday with early offshore winds ahead of a change. Today the swell is still on the tiny side and great for beginners.

This week and next week (Oct 3 - 8)

The coming days will remain tiny and onshore across the South Arm, with a strong pulse of long-period SW groundswell due to fill in Friday but the only issue are the local winds.

Firstly looking at the source, and that will be a 'bombing' low firing up around the Heard Island region today, with the rapid drop in central pressure resulting in a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds being aimed through our south-western swell window.

The low will weaken on approached to us but a deepening trough to our north-east will form a low and draw up a front when the swell arrives late week.

This will see strengthening S/SW winds on Thursday (ahead of the swell) kicking up some local windswell, with the winds persisting Friday from the SW tending S/SW.

The swell is due to arrive Friday and build rapidly towards 6ft on the sets into the late afternoon across Clifton, easing from 5ft+ or so on Saturday, down to 3ft into the afternoon and then a smaller 2ft+ on Sunday.

Winds will try and improve on Saturday but only likely tend W/SW for a period before reverting back to the SW with Sunday unfortunately seeing persistent SW tending fresh S/SE winds.

The lack of offshore winds is thanks to a stubborn high setting up camp west of us following the low forming north-east of us, directing onshore southerly winds into the state.

Next week should offer cleaner conditions and with some smaller background pulses of groundswell, but more on this Wednesday.