South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 13th September)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny and windy Sat
• Small swell increase Sun, easing Mon but very wind affected
• Tiny and windy Tues/Wed/Thurs AM
• Small S'ly swell possible late Thurs/Fri

Recap

Small clean leftovers have dominated the last two days. 

Tiny peelers this afternoon

This weekend (Sep 16 - 17)

We've got a whole week of windy westerlies on the cards as a strong conveyer belt of fronts cross the state.

However, they're still riding too north in latitude to properly favour the South Arm for surf. 

Saturday will be very small for the most part, with strengthening W/NW winds. I can't see there being anything worthwhile, the swell direction will simply be too west to get into Storm Bay.

Sunday has slightly better size potential, as core wind speeds around an embedded low contained with a mobile frontal conveyer belt below the continent are in the 50kt range. Add in the fact that its working on an active sea state (generated by the front prior), and I'm prepared to let some of my directional concerns slip past the goalkeeper.  

However, W/NW winds are expected to be gale force for much of the day so will it be worthwhile? Occasional 1.5-2ft+ sets are really nothing to get terribly excited about when the wind chill will be arctic. 

Give it a miss.

Next week (Sep 18 onwards)

Most of next week looks similarly poor, as the storm track will remain quite high up into the Bight, which will create dominant westerly swells that simply won't be able to get into Storm Bay properly. Whatever swell we see Sunday will slowly ease through Monday under gusty W/NW winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be tiny and wind blown.

However there is a suggestion that we'll see a break in the regional zonal (west-east) flow throguh the Southern Ocean around Wednesday, which should allow a polar low to develop south of the state and generate a secondary south swell to push through later Thursday or Friday.

No major size is expected but this is probably your best glimmer of hope at the moment. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!