Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 23rd)

Best Days: This afternoon, tomorrow, protected spots later Friday, Sunday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W groundswell for this afternoon, with a reinforcing W/SW groundswell tomorrow AM, easing
• Fresh N tending N/NW winds tomorrow
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell building Fri PM with W/SW-SW winds, tending W/NW on dark
• Moderate sized SW groundswell Sat with moderate W/SW-SW-SW winds
• Reinforcing S/SW swell Sun with NW tending SE winds
• Easing S swell Mon with N tending E/NE winds
• New SW groundswell Tue AM with N tending variable winds

Recap

Monday afternoon's pulse of swell held nicely into yesterday and this morning we saw similar sized sets, though a strong new W'ly groundswell has filled in with sets to 3ft+ though very straight.

Strong new W groundswell this afternoon

This week and next (Aug 24 - Sep 1)

This afternoon's pulse of strong W'ly groundswell was generated by the 'bombing low' that fired up under the country on Monday, with satellite observations confirming a great storm-force fetch of W/SW winds generated in our western swell window.

This is the source of this afternoon's pulse of swell, with it due to peak overnight. A slightly better aligned but weaker fetch of W/SW gales trailing the storm-force fetch should produce a reinforcing W/SW groundswell for tomorrow morning that will maintain 3ft sets tomorrow morning with the possible rare bigger one, easing steadily through the day.

Winds will be great and gusty from the N tending N/NW, dicey Friday as the swell drops further with a front bringing W/SW-SW winds that might tend back to the W/NW later in the day.

This frontal system will be part of another rapidly deepening progression with severe-gale NW winds, followed by severe-gale to possibly storm-force W/SW winds expected to fire up directly west of us tomorrow.

We'll then see a low forming with gale to severe-gale SW-S/SW winds directed through our southern swell window Friday.

What will result is a moderate sized W/SW groundswell building Friday and reaching 3ft but with those W/SW winds, possibly tending W/NW on dark.

Saturday looks to hold 3-4ft from the SW, with a reinforcing pulse of S/SW groundswell Sunday maintaining 3-4ft surf Sunday.

As the swell starts easing Monday, some new SW groundswell is due to arrive, generated by polar gale to severe-gale W/NW winds swinging in under Western Australia. This is due later Monday but more so Tuesday and to 2-3ft, smaller through the afternoon.

Local winds through this swell event aren't ideal with W/SW-SW tending SW breezes due on Saturday, good Sunday morning and NW ahead of SE sea breezes.

Monday looks good as well with N tending E/NE winds and then N tending variable winds on Tuesday. We'll confirm this on Friday though. Longer term the outlook remains active with polar activity to our south-west but more on this Friday.