Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday July 24th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell tomorrow, with a larger SW groundswell in the mix
• W/NW-NW tending variable winds tomorrow
• Easing surf Wed with W/NW-NW winds
• Small-moderate sized S/SW swell Thu AM, easing with N/NW tending N/NE winds
• Small-moderate sized mid-period SW swell later Fri but peaking Sat AM, easing with N/NW tending NE winds, N Sun
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell early next week

Recap

Friday's building W/SW energy maintained a fun, 2ft on Saturday with great conditions, while yesterday morning a trough that was expected to bring a fresh onshore change was absent, with glassy 2ft waves persisting.

Today we've got tiny waves back to 1-1.5ft with great conditions for beginners.

This week and weekend (Jul 25 - 30)

All eyes are on tomorrow when a strong mix of large W/SW and SW groundswells are due to fill in, with the two possibly destructively interfering at times providing funky double ups.

This is the only possible downside to the coming days, with a broad, complex low generating a mixed fetch of pre-frontal, severe-gale W/NW winds, with tighter storm-force W'ly winds around a small low pressure centre on the weekend.

This was east of the Heard Island region (more aligned with our western swell window) and the remnants of the complex low are now re-strengthening west-southwest of us, with an additional fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds now moving through our south-western swell window.

What this will result in is a mix of moderate sized W/SW groundswell and larger SW groundswell for tomorrow, coming in around 6ft+ across Clifton under W/NW-NW tending variable winds.

Wednesday will see W/NW-NW winds all day as the large swell eases, dropping back from the 3ft range.

A very late forming low, south of us Wednesday may generate a short-lived pulse of S/SW groundswell early Thursday to 2-3ft, then easing into the afternoon along with N/NW tending N/NE winds.

Into the weekend, a fun sized mid-period SW swell is due to peak Saturday morning, with it arriving later in the day Saturday but with a W/SW-SW change.

Polar, strong to gale-force W'ly winds should produce a good 2-3ft of swell with N/NW tending NE winds, fading through Sunday with straight N'ly offshores.

Longer term, a significant Southern Ocean frontal progression forming east of the Heard Island region later this week looks to produce a moderate sized W/SW groundswell for early next week but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.