Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday May 17th)

Best Days: This afternoon, Thursday, Friday afternoon, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swell tomorrow with N/NW tending NW winds
• New SW swells building Fri PM with fresh SW winds, shifting variable W into the PM
• Steady moderate sized swell Sat and Sun AM, building a little Sun PM, with a stronger groundswell on Mon
• N/NW tending W/NW winds Sat, gusty SW-W/SW on Sun
• W/NW Mon

Recap

Solid surf yesterday with less than ideal winds, much cleaner today and still 3ft+ on the sets this afternoon with a reinforcing pulse of swell.

Strong sets this afternoon

This week and weekend (May 18 - 21)

The current swell which has pulsed this afternoon thanks to reinforcing mid-period energy pushing up, into the Arm, is due to ease back from 2-3ft tomorrow with great winds, offshore all day.

Friday looks a bit smaller and a cold front will bring a SW change before dawn, easing through day and tending more variable into the afternoon. This should create improving conditions along with a new building mix of mid-period swells into the afternoon.

2ft waves are due through the morning, building back to 3ft later afternoon, generated by patchy but healthy frontal systems moving through our swell window.

A very temporary drop in swell is due Saturday morning ahead of some new, building energy through the afternoon and further increases in size Sunday/Monday.

The source of these swells will be strengthening polar frontal activity pushing in from the west over the coming week, a conveyer belt of increasing winds and open ocean swell.

It should relate in moderate levels of SW swell for us from Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with a larger groundswell for Monday.

At this stage Saturday looks to build back to 3ft, with Sunday seeing building surf to 3-4ft through the afternoon, peaking Monday to 4-5ft or so.

Winds will remain favourable with N/NW tending W/NW breezes on Saturday, less than ideal Sunday and strong SW tending W/SW, back offshore Monday out of the W/NW.

Longer term we could be looking at a larger swell late week, but more on this Friday.