South Arm Forecaster Notes by Ben Matson (issued Monday 1st May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tues is the pick of the forecast period with small+ waves and light winds
• Size easing Wed, then tiny for the rest of the week
• New swell for the weekend but onshore Sat, easing but improving Sun
• Plenty of swell on the cards for next week

Recap

Solid surf Saturday, easing slowly throughout Sunday, back to small and clean conditions this morning. A new swell has started to build this afternoon.

This week (May 2 - 5)

We’ve got a lovely mobile synoptic pattern on the boil right now, which will deliver a prolonged run of quality groundswells throughout the southern states, along with periods of favourable winds. 

However, the storm track is crucial for South Arm's surf prospects, and initially it will deviate up through the Bight, which not great for southern Tasmanian surf production.

Fortunately, the new swell that started to show this afternoon hasn't yet reached a peak and should offer good conditions on Tuesday under a light W/NW wind. Size should maintain 2ft+ sets across the South Arm. We'll then see easing size into Wednesday, though still some fun small waves with early light winds.

A powerful front/low passing through Bass Strait on Wednesday may actually bring about a southerly wind change through the afternoon though it won't last too long. It won't however generate any new swell for the region.

Small leftovers are then expected for the rest of the week with light winds Thursday becoming fresh from the north early Friday ahead of a strong westerly change later on.

So.. make the most of Tuesday!

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Friday’s late frontal system will be associated with a deep, slow moving low sitting at much lower latitudes than those systems influencing the region over the coming days.

It’ll generate a strong new swell for the weekend, but the position of the low, and a number of followup secondary fronts, will maintain a predominantly SW flow on Saturday before the breeze swings back to the west on Sunday.

Wave heights should rebuild back into the 2ft+ range across the South Arm on Saturday, but I'm not expecting anything amazing in the surf department thanks to the onshore. Sunday morning is a better bet though we'll be on the backside of this pulse of energy. 

It’s worth noting that the models aren’t consolidating the associated fronts (generating the weekend swell) very well at the moment - see below. If this happens we may see a minor upgrade in size potential, though the wind outlook would subsequently move around too (likely windier!).

Next week (May 8 onwards)

More winter fronts are looking likely for the longer term, windy conditions with a wide range of interesting surf possibilities is looking favourable for South Arm surfers. 

See you Wednesday!