Average outlook due to onshore winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 2nd)

Best Days: Saturday and Sunday mornings for the keen (low expectations), Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing W/SW swell tomorrow ahead of a reinforcing mid-period SW swell Sun
  • Moderate W/SW tending stronger S/SW winds both days
  • Moderate sized S groundswell arriving through Mon, peaking in the PM, easing Tue
  • Fresh S/SW tending strong S/SE winds on Mon, S/SW Tue
  • Easing small swells Wed with N/NW tending SE winds

Recap

Clean conditions yesterday morning with 2ft of W/SW swell, bumpy into the afternoon with sea breezes, clean again this morning with 2ft sets continuing and the odd bigger one with the help of the incoming tide. Winds have shifted more W/NW and strengthened, favouring protected spots.

This weekend and next week (Sep 1 - 9)

Conditions aren't looking the best for the weekend as a series of cold fronts clip the state from this evening, bringing W/SW-SW winds, lightest tomorrow morning and workable but not perfect.

Clifton should still see 2ft+ sets, easing slowly through the day and winds are due to shift S/SW and strengthen through the afternoon.

Similar winds are expected on Sunday, best in the morning and moderate out of the W/SW along with some new mid-period SW swell energy. This is being generated by a relatively weak but broad polar front that's currently south-west of us and we should see 2ft to possibly 3ft sets.

Of greater significance is the S'ly groundswell due into Monday, generated by a stronger fetch of SW gales, south of us tomorrow.

There's a chance that the swell is a touch undersized at dawn Monday but should be in by mid-late morning, peaking to 3ft across Clifton, then easing from 2-3ft Tuesday.

Unfortunately winds will remain poor on Monday with a fresh S/SW tending stronger S/SE breeze as a low forms east of us, lingering from the S/SW on Tuesday with the easing sets.

It's not until Wednesday that conditions finally improve with a N/NW offshore but small, inconsistent mix of swells to 1-2ft.

Longer term the Southern Ocean goes a little quiet so while the weekend looks less than ideal in the mornings, it's probably worth getting a paddle in. Have a great weekend!