Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday August 31st)

Best Days: Early tomorrow, Friday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell for later today, peaking tomorrow with N/NW winds ahead of a mid-morning S/SW change
• Moderate sized W/SW swell Fri with N/NW tending W/NW winds
• Smaller, reinforcing W/SW swell Sat with W/SW-SW winds
• Small-moderate sized mid-period SW swell Sun with W/SW tending S/SW winds
• Moderate sized S'ly swell Mon with SW tending S winds
• Easing S swell Tue with variable tending NE winds

Recap

Plenty of swell yesterday but with less than ideal conditions owing to flukey winds and the long-period nature of the swell. Today is cleaner and back to 1-1.5ft.

This week and next (Sep 1 - 9)

We've got tons of swell on the way for the coming period but also with tricky winds owing to the frontal systems linked to the swells pushing up and into us.

Looking at tomorrow and an initial increase in tiny mid-period W/SW swell is due to 1-2ft along with dawn N/NW winds ahead of a mid-morning S/SW change.

Friday should clean up again with a N/NW offshore, shifting W/NW into the afternoon along with our better and stronger W/SW groundswell.

The source of this swell was a good polar frontal progression firing up east of the Heard Island region and it's now to our west, pushing east while generating a healthy fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds.

3ft sets are due across Clifton and with those favourable winds.

Now, looking at the weekend and early next week and the strong polar frontal progression that's forecast to develop to our south now looks to be a touch more zonal in nature and positioned a bit further east.

This will result in a downgrade of the expected size, not enough to get protected spots working and onshore as it peaks.

Firstly on Saturday, easing 2ft+ sets are due across Clifton with a fresh W/SW tending strong SW breeze in the wake of a cold front Friday evening, while Sunday looks to play out similar but with S/SW winds into the afternoon.

On Sunday some new mid-period SW swell is expected from a fetch of strong W/SW winds moving through our swell window but only to 2-3ft.

Monday will see the S'ly groundswell push in, originating from a fetch of gale-force SW-S/SW winds developing in our swell window Saturday evening and Sunday.

Good sets to 4ft are due across Clifton but winds look to remain average and SW-S.

Tuesday looks a better bet with variable morning winds as the S'ly swell slowly eases back from the 3ft range.

Longer term there's nothing too significant on the cards until next weekend, but more on this Friday.