Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday August 29th)

Best Days: This afternoon, tomorrow morning, Wednesday beginners, early Thursday, Friday ahead of the change, selected spots Sunday afternoon, Monday, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent, long-period W/SW groundswell for Mon PM with mod-fresh N/NE winds
• Easing groundswell tomorrow with variable winds, shifting strong S/SW mid-late afternoon
• Small to tiny Wed with N/NW winds
• Inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell for later Wed, peaking Thu with N/NW winds ahead of a mid-morning S/SW change Thu
• Moderate sized W/SW swell Fri with N/NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a mid-late PM W/SW change.
• Reinforcing W/SW swell Sat with W/SW-SW winds
• Large S/SW groundswell building Sun PM, easing slowly Mon with W/SW-SW winds Sun, W/NW tending SE Mon
• Easing S swell Tue with N tending NE winds

Recap

Great conditions over the weekend with a reinforcing swell Saturday to 2ft, easing back through yesterday from 1-2ft.

This morning we've tiny waves ahead of our inconsistent W/SW groundswell this afternoon. Cape Sorell has started to rise and we should see 2ft sets arriving before dark.

This week and weekend (Aug 30 – Sep 4)

This afternoon's inconsistent W/SW groundswell should peak overnight and ease off slowly tomorrow from 2ft on the sets in the morning and early variable winds should create clean conditions ahead of a weak early afternoon sea breeze and then strong S/SW change mid-late arvo as a trough moves across us.

This trough will clear quickly to the east into the evening, with Wednesday due to see N/NW winds blowing all day. Size wise the swell looks to be tiny and to 1-1.5ft, with a new mid-period W/SW swell due to arrive later in the day but peak Thursday.

This swell and a better W/SW swell for Friday are being generated by polar frontal activity firing up around and east of the Heard Island region.

Fetches of strong to gale-force W-W/SW winds are being generated and we should see some decent size developing through the end of the week.

The first pulse for later Wednesday and Thursday is smallest and only likely to be 1-2ft, but Friday's should come in at 2-3ft.

Winds on Thursday look best early and N/NW ahead of a trough and S/SW change mid-morning.

Friday should be really fun with gusty N/NW winds, shifting NW ahead of a mid-late afternoon W/SW change.

Now, moving into the weekend, we've got a strong, slow moving polar frontal progression that's set to form south of us, bringing a good run of large S/SW tending S'ly swell through the weekend and early next week.

The only issue with this slow moving frontal progression will be the local winds.

Looking at Saturday first and a deepening low pushing under us Friday should generate a reinforcing mid-period SW swell for Saturday to 2-3ft across Clifton and with gusty W/SW tending SW winds.

Similar winds are due on Sunday but with the building S/SW swell energy arriving from gale to severe-gale-force S/SW winds to our south.

The size and timing may shift around a bit but we're looking at strong 4-6ft sets across Clifton later Sunday and Monday morning, but with W tending SE winds on the latter.

The swell will ease slowly into Tuesday and Wednesday with N-N/NE winds but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.