Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday May 23rd)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow morning and Wednesday, beginners Thursday, Saturday and Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small to tiny S/SW swell tomorrow and Wed, fading Thu
• Light N/NW tending E/SE winds tomorrow, N/NE Wed and N tending NE Thu
• N/NW tending W/NW then W/SW winds Fri
• Inconsistent tiny W/SW swell Sat and Sun with N/NW winds Sat and N tending W/SW winds Sun

Recap

Great surf Saturday with clean conditions and sets to 2-3ft, easing back to 1-1.5ft yesterday under a light offshore breeze.

A new, inconsistent SW groundswell has boosted wave heights slightly to 1-2ft today under favourable winds.

This week and next (May 24 – Jun 3)

The coming period looks slow in regards to swell generation thanks to two factors.

The first is a strong, slow moving high that's put a block across our swell window since last week, with polar fronts firing up around its southern flank.

This activity is pushing further east and away from us now, but we should continue to see inconsistent sets pulsing between 1-2ft tomorrow and Wednesday, fading from 1-1.5ft on Thursday.

A light N/NW tending E/SE breeze is due tomorrow, with persistent, fresh N/NE winds Wednesday, N tending NE on Thursday. Come Friday a weakening low will bring a N/NW tending W/SW change but no major new swell.

The only other source of swell for the period is an inconsistent, small to tiny, mid-period W/SW swell that's being generated by a distant polar low that's east of the Heard Island region. The structure is patchy but we should see some infrequent 1-1.5ft sets across Clifton both Saturday and Sunday. Winds look favourable all Saturday and N/NW, with Sunday seeing N tending W/SW winds as a weak change moves through.

Into next week, a strong, slow moving low is forecast to develop high in the Bight, with a fetch of S'ly gales aimed into Western Australia's southern coast which isn't favourable at all for us.

Therefore the outlook remains slow but should improve from later next week onwards. More on this Wednesday.