South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 20th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small pulse of swell for Sat, easing Sun
• Tricky winds this weekend, genenerally onshore though early morning could see brief light periods
• Small surf for most of next week, just a minor S'ly pulse Tues/Wed
• Small new swell next weekend, more swell the following week

Recap

Solid though bumpy surf through the middle of the week is now easing in size, with much lighter winds improving conditions.

This weekend (May 21 - 22)

A series of fronts passing well to the south of the state will maintain a general synoptic SW flow across southern Tasmania, though without much strength. So, we should see some local topographical influence through the mornings, allowing for early light offshore winds.

Unfortunately, there's not a lot of swell inbound. The current event is easing, though a small swell is due Saturday from a polar low/front that developed at the tail end of the sequence responsible for our current event.

This energy should have a touch more south in the direction (of SW) compared to the prevailing energy so open South Arm beaches should rebuild into the 2ft, maybe 2-3ft range through the day, before easing back to 1-2ft on Sunday. Aim for an early paddle both days for the best window of opportunity.

Next week (May 23 onwards)

A strong polar low will develop below the state later this weekend and reach peak intensity on the eastern periphery of our swell window - i.e. below the Tasman Sea - early next week (see below).

This should generate some small southerly swell for Tuesday, easing Wednesday but we probably won't see much more than an occasional 2ft+ set at exposed beaches (though, the more southerly direction will favour more locations than normal).

Otherwise, a large blocking high across our immediate swell window will impact our surf outlook in two ways for the entirety of next week - it'll maintain low swell heights (by defecting storm activity away from our region) and it'll also keep conditions nice and clean with light winds from Tuesday, tending N'ly Wednesday thru' Friday.

A series of modest fronts will push through our far swell window mid-late next week and set up a small new swell for next weekend, though the direction will be more west than ideal so surf size may be capped in the 2ft range throughout the South Arm.

There is however a suggestion for more swell through the early to middle part of the following week as a Long Wave Trough amplifies west of the state, but that's a long time away.

Have a great weekend!