Southern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday March 16th)

Best Days: Sunday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny surf tomorrow with fresh N/NE tending variable winds
• Strong S/SW winds Fri with a building windswell
• Tiny W/SW swell Sat with moderate S/SW winds, easing ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Inconsistent W/SW groundswell filling in Sun (possible undersized early) with light N tending SE winds
• Weak S/SE swell in the mix Sun, easing Mon

Recap: 

Small 2ft sets yesterday with a reinforcing W/SW swell and variable morning winds, shifting E/NE and strengthening into the afternoon.

Today the surf is cleaner and still 2ft but easing with tiny waves now breaking across Clifton with sea breezes.

This week and weekend (Mar 17 - 20)

The end of the week won't offer much in the way of swell energy and unfortunately our W/SW groundswell for Saturday has been downgraded.

This is a result of the strong mid-latitude frontal progression that's currently passing under Western Australia's south being initially too far north of our swell window (as expected), but when it dips south-east tomorrow it's not due to restrengthen into a polar low. Instead a weak fetch of W/SW winds will be generated, producing a tiny 1-1.5ft of swell for Saturday.

The secondary, tighter trailing low looks to be a better swell producer with a fetch of W/NW gales due to generate a reinforcing W/SW groundswell Sunday to 1-2ft, though arriving mid-late morning and peaking into the afternoon.

Looking at the local winds and tomorrow will be tiny to flat with fresh N/NE winds, tending variable ahead of a late change, strong S/SW on Friday, kicking up a weak S/SW windswell for the afternoon to 1-1.5ft.

Saturday will remain onshore with a moderate S'ly breeze, easing late morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Sunday looks the pick of the weekend with light N'ly winds ahead of a S/SE sea breeze.

The models are showing some weak S/SE swell in the mix but the source of this will be the backside of the change moving through Friday, with a weak low forming but mostly east and north of our swell window.

Monday therefore looks tiny with morning offshore winds and afternoon sea breezes.

Longer term the outlook is slower with no major swells on the cards, but more on this Friday.