South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 10th June)

Best Days: Fri: fun waves with offshore winds redeveloping. Mon thru' Thurs: small windy waves. 

Recap: Small surf persisted through Tuesday and early Wednesday ahead of a small increase in size through the afternoon. Conditions have been clean with offshore winds. 

This week (June 11 - 12)

*This week's Forecaster Notes will be a little sporadic, and sometimes brief, as Craig is on leave*

No major change to the outlook for the rest of the week.

A series of strong polar lows travelling below the continent over the last few days have generated some new swell that’ll provide fluctuating energy through Thursday and Friday. Wave heights should hold somewhere in the 2ft to almost 2-3ft range, with Friday likely to be the pick of the two days thanks to a more favourably aligned swell source (currently south of the state today, see below). 

Thursday’s conditions look a little average with moderate to fresh SW winds, though early light W/NW winds can’t be ruled out. Friday will start off with light winds from the NE, they’ll tend more N/NE through the morning and become fresh and gusty into the afternoon as a high develops east of the state. 

This weekend (June 13 - 14)

I’m still not expecting much surf this weekend.

A vigorous frontal progression through the Bight will strengthen northerly winds on Saturday, ahead of a gale force NW thru’ W/NW change on Sunday, but with Friday’s swell rapidly easing through the day surf options will be limited. 

We may see early 1-2ft sets at dawn on Saturday but it’ll abate to below a foot by the afternoon. Tiny conditions will then persist through Sunday as the wind strenthens. 

Next week (June 15 onwards)

The approaching frontal progression providing swell for next week will be very active with multiple embedded lows in the westerly stream. This will produce an extended period of strong, powerful surf for all southern states, though with the overall storm track riding quite north in latitude, the swell direction will have quite a lot of west and this will significantly attenuate wave heights for the South Arm.

There’s also been a slight change in the model guidance since Monday; we’re now no longer looking at a significant cut-off feature south of the Bight on Sunday, instead the fronts will line up one after another, each working on the active sea state generated by the previous system.

The initial stages of this system are probably at risk of being too westerly in direction, but by Monday and Tuesday the storm track will have shifted further south and this will increase our chances of seeing swell push into Storm Bay. Additionally, Sunday thru Thursday will experience near continuous gale to storm force W/NW winds so it won’t be terribly inviting for surfing.

Monday and Tuesday are likely to see building swells into the 2ft range but Wednesday and particularly Thursday should see a little more size, pushing 2-3ft+ at times. It won’t be great but there will be options for keen surfers. 

Long term beyond Thursday maintains solid W’ly swells across the region which should continue to bend into the South Arm, offering small waves but with much lighter winds and more manageable conditions. 

See you Friday!