Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th November)

Best Days: Late morning Monday ahead of the change, early Wednesday and Thursday mornings

Recap

Tiny start to yesterday ahead of a building swell through the afternoon, and this morning, but EC won the day and forecast the onshore winds from dawn. This spoilt the waves into this morning.

This week and weekend (Nov 30 – Dec 6)

We may see a tiny 1ft+ wave left on the coast tomorrow morning for beginners, and conditions will be cleaner with a light W/NW breeze developing, ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

Sunday will be clean but tiny to flat.

We then look to the frontal activity moving in later in the weekend and through next week, under the influence of the Long Wave Trough.

The first front will develop south-west of us tomorrow and generate a fetch of strong W/SW winds in our swell window before tracking up towards SA and out of our swell window.

A small W/SW swell is due off this front, filling in Monday and reaching 2ft across Clifton into the afternoon but with a morning NW'ly, shifting strong SW with a change.

The front linked to Monday's change won't carry much swell potential with surf to 2ft+ or so across Clifton with strong W'ly winds on Tuesday morning.

The frontal system behind this looks better though with it generating a good fetch of strong W/SW winds in our western swell window and under us Tuesday and Wednesday.

A bit more size to 2-3ft is expected, dropping slightly into Thursday but with W/SW winds continuing mostly, possibly W/NW early each morning.

One final intensification of the frontal progression south of us late week will see a fetch of strong W/SW-SW winds projected up and into the state, generating a larger increase in SW swell Friday, building to 3-4ft or so but with strong onshore S/SW winds. The models diverge a little regarding this final push.

Saturday could see more variable breezes as the swell starts to ease, but we'll look at this in more detail on Monday. Have a great weekend!