Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 28th October)

Best Days: No great days

Recap

Tiny on the coast Saturday with a little pulse of inconsistent swell yesterday. Today a better S'ly swell is breaking with clean conditions this morning.

This week and weekend (Oct 29 – Nov 3)

It's good to be back! Coming in a little cold it looks like any S'ly swell seen through today will fade overnight, while a very inconsistent and westerly long-period groundswell isn't due to offer much size at all.

Expect waves to 1-1.5ft tomorrow but with nice clean conditions under a N'ly offshore, possibly giving into sea breezes ahead of a late afternoon W/SW change.

Wednesday looks tiny with easing surf from 1-1.5ft with a lingering onshore S/SE breeze that may tend variable mid-morning ahead of a fresher E'ly wind into the afternoon. Not the best.

Unfortunately the rest of the coming period isn't very conducive for surfing with the storm track pushing north of our swell window and more up towards WA later week. This will result in weaker mid-period W'ly swells with no real size expected to move in.

The cause of this is linked to a strong negative Southern Annular Mode event (SAM), pushing the westerly storm track north and out of our swell window, brought on by the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event a couple of months ago.

Therefore with the tiny outlook it might be worth making the most of the tiny waves on offer tomorrow morning and possibly Wednesday morning with a bigger board.