Slow outlook until next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th June)

Best Days: Sunday, Tuesday afternoon, early Wednesday, Thursday

Recap

Monday's S/SW groundswell dropped right back yesterday from a small 1-2ft across Clifton, tiny today.

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This week and next (Jun 27 – Jul 5)

The end of the week isn't looking too special with inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswells due to fill in, coming in best Friday in my opinion, not tomorrow.

We'll likely see 1ft+ waves Friday with an offshore N'ly breeze.

The small S/SW groundswell for Sunday has been downgraded a little with the polar front linked to it, now only expected to be short-lived and weaker. A quick burst of strong W/SW winds will be generated on Friday, with the swell arriving through the day Sunday and likely reaching 1-2ft.

We'll likely see a more noticeable short-range W/SW swell Sunday from a small low forming west of us and moving across us. The only issue is that it will track south-east and the fetch will be W'ly. This may generate a small 1-2ft of W/SW swell for Sunday afternoon as winds blow NW all day. Therefore at this stage Sunday afternoon looks to be the best chance for a surf.

Moving into next week we've got much better swell on the cards but winds look to become an issue.

A strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in from the west later in the weekend will bring a flurry of strong frontal systems with it, projecting from east of Heard Island up towards and under WA.

This will be in our western swell window and inconsistent but as the storm progresses east towards us we'll hopefully see fetches of strong to gale W/SW winds right off our door step.

In any case the long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell energy should build Tuesday, peaking later if not Wednesday morning, with close-range energy in the mix Wednesday. Winds look to shift W/NW with the building swell Tuesday and possibly swing onshore Wednesday in the wake of the activity, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.