South Arm Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Thursday 21st March)

Best Days: Sat: small waves at west facing locations. Tues/Wed: large, very windy surf. Thurs: easing and improving.

This week and weekend (Mar 22 - 24)

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*this week's Forecaster Notes will be occasionally brief and erratic, as Craig is on annual leave - they’ll be updated Tues/Thurs/Sun - to receive notification when they’re updated, please update your account preferences*

No major changes for the next few days with very small surf expected to persist throughout Southern Tasmania, along with freshening NE winds later Friday and through Saturday as a series of fronts approach the northern portion of the state. This will precede a W’ly wind change for Sunday.

A minor lift in size is likely later Friday and into Saturday from a strong front pushing through the Southern Ocean earlier this week, though it was generally tracking too far north to properly favour the South Arm.

As such I’m not expecting much size - I’d be surprised if we saw much more than an occasional 1-2ft set at open beaches (obviously, bigger at west facing locations, and they’ll be your best bet on Saturday morning). Expect size to ease into Saturday afternoon and return to very small levels into Sunday.

Next week (Mar 25 onwards)

A complex series of powerful lows will track across Tasmanian longitudes from Monday onwards, delivering W/NW tending W’ly gales and building strong surf across the region.

Despite the impressive looking swell charts, only a small percentage of energy will have been favourably aligned within our swell window during the generation phase (see below) so surf size will be comparatively small compared to what the Cape Sorell buoy (for example) will end up recording (expect max wave heights of 12-15m or so, yes that's metres and not feet!).

Monday actually has the potential of being very small ahead of the main groundswell kick (due on Tuesday) with gale to storm force cross-offshore winds. They’ll veer W’ly on Tuesday as wave heights increase to 4-5ft (obviously, much bigger at locations with better westerly exposure), with easing size and gradually abating - thoguh still gusty - W’ly winds into Wednesday. This pattern will then ease further into Thursday.

Strong secondary fronts trailing behind will renew moderate to strong swell into Friday and the weekend, so it’s looking like an active long term period for Hobart surfers. More in Sunday’s update.