South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 28th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very large S'ly tending S/SE swell in NNSW Thurs, smaller but solid in SE Qld and with a building E'ly swell too
• Solid mix of easing S/SE and slowly building but inconsistent E'ly swell Fri/Sat (easing Sun)
• Solid long period S'ly swell late Sat (MNC) and Sun (remainder NNSW and SEQLD), easing Mon though best on the points under S/SE winds
• Next week looking more dynamic now
• Possible small E swell Tues/Wed (more likely MNC)
• Potential low pressure gyre forming in Tasman mid next week with run of sizey S-SE swell on the menu - low confidence in specifics

Recap

Small, fun waves yesterday which was the last in an excellent run from the E saw some 2-3ft sets wind affected by N’lies at first, clean in the a’noon as winds swung NW then W’ly. This morning we have a brisk W’ly wind with precursor S swell slowly showing to 2-3ft at S exposed breaks across the NE coast of NSW and much more to come.

S swell just starting to show across the North Coast with a flood plume in the background typical of the wet autumn we've had

Next week (May 28 - 30)

A strong cold outbreak has led to the formation of a winter-calibre low in the Tasman (984hPa), backed by a strong, slow moving high in the Bight. We’re seeing the formation of strong S swells from this system, which will peak tomorrow then ease with a following front and deep low well to the south providing a strong S groundswell over the weekend under light winds.

In the short run we’ll see light/mod W-SW winds early tomorrow as the low tracks NE through the Tasman towards NZ and the high remains slow moving, holding a tight pressure gradient across central NSW, slacker up towards the sub-tropics. Those winds will clock around S’ly through the day but should stay only mod in strength. Plenty of size expected to build in NENSW  as swell trains from the S through S/SE makes landfall. S exposed breaks in NENSW should build from 4-5ft to 6ft+ through the day (bigger 8ft at exposed S facing river bars) and showing from 2ft to 3-4ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. 

Friday is looking good. There’ll still be a strong high in the bight but with the low in the Tasman now on the other side of New Zealand pressure gradients will be slacker along the coast although a weak ridge will see a light SE flow develop. We’ll see light morning W-W/SW winds clocking around SW-S then S-SE through the mid/late morning. Size will have come down from Thursday’s peak into the 4-6ft range in NENSW but with swell direction tending more favourable S/SE we should see a bit more size getting into SEQLD, with a more widespread distribution of 3-4ft surf and some bigger 5ft sets possible at S swell magnets. Underlying it will be some inconsistent E’ly energy from a distant South Pacific fetch which will be adding a stray 3ft set into the mix.

This weekend (May 31 - Jun 1)

Not much change to the weekend outlook. As Ben mentioned on Mon a powerful polar low moving through the lower Tasman Thurs/Fri looks to send a long period S swell up the pipe. It’s an impressive fetch with severe gale to storm force winds in a wide band moving NE, only offset by winds being not perfectly aimed up the pipe (the system reforms SE of New Zealand and looks to send a very large swell towards Tahiti and Northern Hemisphere targets).

The high over Southern NSW holds a ridge up the sub-tropical coast, potentially strengthened by a trough off the CQ coast. That will see light morning winds Sat (likely offshore through NENSW/Gold Coast, tending more S-SE north of Moreton Island) tending to mod SE-E/SE winds in the a’noon. We’ll see residual S/SE swell to 3-4ft in NENSW, easing through the day, smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD with some small E swell in the mix adding the occ. 2-3ft set. A late increase in S swell to 4ft is likely across the North Coast late in the day, but the main bulk of the S groundswell looks to fill in o/night.

We’ll see long period S swell dominant on Sun with sets to 4-6ft across NENSW S exposed breaks, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Similar winds to Sat with light W-SW breezes early, tending light/mod SE through the day.

There will be that small undercurrent of E/NE swell in the mix over the weekend (inconsistent 2-3ft) which could provide some fun waves for more sheltered spots. 

Next week (Jun 2 onwards)

Easing S swells to start next week as high pressure drifts NE into the Tasman so expect at least Mon to see fun sized S swells to 3ft, easing through the day, smaller in SEQLD.

Tues now looks interesting as a small low is progged to form off the NSW Central Coast. A minor increase in local E/NE'ly swell is on the cards from winds feeding into the low (more likely on the MNC), along with a wind change to the W as winds swing offshore around the northern flank of the low. Still low confidence in specifics but worth pencilling in at this stage.

Further ahead and there’s now building model agreement on a complex low pressure gyre forming in the Tasman from mid next week, potentially offering a long lived S through SE swell event with multiple pulses late next week. Too far out to have any confidence in specifics but keep the good wave boards on hand as we move into the opening stanza of winter.

We’ll have a better idea about how next week is shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then!