South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed August 14th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly change Thurs as E-E/NE swells ease through Thurs/Fri
• Easing E/NE swells Sat, becoming tiny with offshore winds
• Tiny in SEQLD Sun, likely building S swells in NENSW later in the a’noon with W’ly winds
• Increasing S/SE swells Mon as trough of low pressure deepens in Tasman
• S/SE swells easing Tues with NW-N winds
• Fresh pulse of S’ly groundswell Wed with NW-N winds
• Easing S swells Thurs/Fri with N’ly quarter winds
• Becoming small into next weekend

Recap

Stormy E’ly swells and onshore winds have been the order of the day with size in the 4-6ft range in SEQLD (slightly bigger on the Sunny Coast), grading smaller 3-5ft south of Byron and E tending E/NE-NE winds making a mess of just about every where. Inside reforms on the Points were  the best of a bad bunch if you had to get a surf in. We should see conditions  improve from tomorrow.

Reforms on the Points for the keen under onshore winds

This week (Aug14-16)

A summer style pattern is seeing tropical moisture dragged down the East coast by a trough and deep E/NE-NE flow from a large high in the Tasman, generating large stormy swells for QLD, grading smaller as you head down the NSW coast. This pattern breaks down as we head into the weekend leaving a broad troughy area of low pressure in the Tasman which is expected to redevelop over the weekend and generate sizey S swells later in the weekend and early next week. Models have been all over the place struggling to resolve this complex troughy area but confidence is now firming we’ll see some size from the S-S/SE from this redeveloped system.

In the short run we’ll see a troughy change overnight or early morning bring a light SW-S flow which should extend into the morning hours before tending light S’ly to S/SE’ly through the day. Solid but easing E/NE swells look to hold in the 4 occ. 5ft range, with sets becoming less frequent in the a’noon as surf settles into the 3 occ. 4ft range.

Easing trend continues into Fri as swells from the E/NE ebb away. Early should see a few 3ft+ sets before dropping below 2ft by close of play. Nice and clean though under a light offshore flow before winds swirl around with a period of light NE breezes possible in the a’noon. No great strength to it though so there should be options around for grovel in the a’noon if you get an early mark.

This weekend (Aug 17-18)

Looks like we will see an increasing W’ly flow through Sat as a small trough of low pressure joins the existing trough and starts to deepen NE of Tasmania. That will drive strong W’lies out of Bass Strait and a developing broad S’ly fetch adjacent to Tasmania. W’ly winds will decrease in strength with N’ly latitude ie stronger and gusty on the MNC and lighter north of the border. At this stage Sat will be tiny with some small E/NE swell to 1-2ft, becoming tiny in the a’noon.

Mod W’lies tend W/SW through SW on Sun, likely clocking around S-SE by mid-a’noon. Surf should stay small for most of Sun except for an a’noon boost in size from the S across the North Coast, showing just after lunch on the MNc and Ballina-Byron by mid-a’noon. That should see surf build to 3ft at S facing beaches. Likely remaining tiny/flat in SEQLD.

Next week (Aug 19 onwards)

Plenty of size to start the week as the Tasman sea trough of low pressure gets supported by a deeper southerly fetch associated with a complex polar low. High pressure moves into the Tasman early next week so we’ll see light winds establish from Mon, with light land and seabreezes. We should see mid period S swell to 3-4ft with some 5ft sets at direct S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD.

That pulse will ease back through Tues with 3-4ft surf at S faience beaches in NENSW, dropping back to 2-3ft, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. We may see a late lick in new S’ly groundswell across the MNC to Ballina but Wed is a better bet. N’ly winds will increase on Tues.

Stronger, longer period S swells from the deeper fetch should fill in o/night and be in the water for Weds’ early. Solid sets are expected at S facing beaches in NENSW- in the 5 occ. 6ft range, grading smaller into more sheltered locations. Expect some inconsistent 2-3ft sets in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Early NW winds will clock around N and freshen from the N-N/NE in the a’noon.

Still some swell around for Thurs. A reinforcing fetch is located in New Zealand longitudes early next week and while most of the energy is aimed at Pacific targets we should see some nice sideband swell energy from the S/SE fill in during Thurs, supplying some 2-3ft  sets at S exposed breaks in NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD under an offshore flow from the W-W/NW tending NW through the day. 

That should hold a surfable wave into Fri under current modelling.

Further ahead and it looks like easing swells into next weekend but we’ll see how that looks on Fri. 

Seeya then.