Pumping E swell over the weekend with offshore winds, lingering into next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 12th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- E’ly swells peak over the weekend with mostly offshore winds
- New S swell filling in Sun, favouring NENSW for size
- Easing E’ly swells next week overlapped by S swells from Mon
- Last pulse of E swell likely later Mon into Tues
- Stronger S swells likely Wed/Thurs, depending on position of low in Tasman
- More sizey S swell likely next weekend
- Tiny/flat surf likely from next weekend with fresh W’ly winds
Recap
Tasty swells out of an unseasonal E’ly direction have maintained fun surf through the recap period with offshore mornings and mod S’lies yesterday tending variable and then SW today. Size has hovered around the 3ft mark with a few subtle ups and downs according to region (more on the Gold Coast and NENSW, less on the Sunshine Coast). If you had access to a serviceable bank there were some good waves to be had.
A few perfect nugs rolling down the Superbank this morning
This weekend (July 13-14)
Not much change to the weekend f/cast. The circulation in the trough line has increased wind speeds in the fetch as the air mass moves from high to low pressure. As a result we’ll see an increase in wave heights and period through tomorrow. We’re still on track for solid 4-5ft surf from the E with bigger 6ft sets likely across NENSW and the Southern Gold Coast. The return flow from the deepening low as it tracks southwards in the trough line will see mod W tending SW winds all day. The proximate fetch of S/SW winds will generate a spike in new S swell, up to 4ft and building across the MNC late Sat, across the rest of the region on Sun. Much smaller 2 occ. 3ft surf from this source in SEQLD.
Those winds should remain W/SW into Sun tending more W and even W/NW in the a’noon. An energetic mix of E/NE-E and S swells will be in the water- with size to 3-4ft from the S (in NENSW) and 4-5ft from the E, easing during the day. If you can find somewhere making sense of the dual swells in the water there should be some good/great surf on offer.
Next week (July 15 onwards)
Still a tricky outlook next week with the low expected to deepen but continue to move S or S/SW and end up close to the Gippsland coast or Tasmania with most of the swell generating winds blocked by Tasmania and/or Green Cape and resultant steep S swells blocked by the Hunter curve.
Meanwhile the infeed into the trough block and now low retreats towards the North Island but shows signs of reintensifying as it does so.
So we’ll see a mix of S and E’ly swells next week, although expect revisions on Mon, as we get a clearer focus on how the Tasman Low will behave.
High confidence winds will be offshore most of the week as we get outflow from the low and a resultant cold outbreak stretches right up into sub-tropical latitudes. Straight W’lies look likely from dawn to dusk right through to Wed, with winds in the second half of the week possibly tending more W/SW-SW as the low moves back northwards. In short, there’ll be fun to good quality waves all next week.
Mon should remain an energetic mix of S and E’ly swells to 3ft with straight offshore winds. Longer period E’ly swells look to fill in either later Mon or early Tues with 3ft sets with S swell easing in the mix.
E swells should hang in there in the 2-3ft range through Wed.
Low confidence from there. We should see some renewal in S swell later next week, possibly as early as Thurs as the low moves north again and we get a slingshot fetch from an advancing cold front.
We may also see a more S/SE swell pulse later next week under the EC scenario which suggests a deeper fetch in the Tasman as the low becomes complex and slow moving.
Either way, expect more S angled swell into the second half of next week, possibly sizey into the weekend.
Further ahead and looks like we will see strong W’ly winds establish into next weekend as zonal winds push northwards over the continent. In the absence of other swells that should see surf become groomed and flat either Sun or early in the week 22/7. The following frontal system and low looks to be slow moving under the continent so we may be relying on small, refracted S swells from W’ly fetches in Bass Strait.
Let’s see how it looks on Mon.
Until then enjoy the weekend of waves!
Comments
I am by no means a forecaster nor have any skill set but I just wanted to hear from the SW guys about the varying degree of differences with the forecast for this weekend comparing to other sources, which can have quite an impact as to the chosen spot for a session -
Here is for the GC tomorrow -
SW - 2.7m E
WillyWeather - 1.8m E
Windy WCMWF - 2.1m E
Windy GFS - 1.9m E
Please don't take this as negative feedback as I love Swellnet and everything that you guys do! It's just the curiosity got the better of me and helping determine whether to hit the local or go chase a couple of slabs up north ;)
just wake up, check it and decide.
Lol not that simple unfortunately as if I am going to chase up north, it then means i'll have to leave at sparrows fart and you can't really suss it out if it's pitch black.
You can guarantee it's going to be packed at any point break. School holidays + Saturday + big east swell + offshore winds.
Tweed offshore buoy is nearly at 2.5m already:
https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/wav...
Never seen anywhere s.w say it was going to be 8ft this w. /e on GC
https://i.imgur.com/YXmiBWC.png
That Superbank still is just incredible. Imagine sand pumping Yaroomba to Arkwright for the Bays/ Point, or Kawana to Secrets for Carties, or Bribie to Shellys for Moffs. Ecological disaster sure, but the waves...
Is Moffat's the worst point break with best potential in Australia? :)
Maybe the worst but there's heaps south of the good ones that could do with some sand.
Hahaha well put, it really is terrible.
Mate don't mock the moff, that place can get fun when it's big, inside bowl section has its moments. Also a couple of other more serious waves in the area
Nah it's shit lol.
Deadset prick of a place, hand a handful of good surfs there in 20+ years!
Moffs is as good as it gets when it lines up with an offshore , always has a bit of power and face even when it doesn’t.
swell pulsing now
Not the only thing.
Wow, that escalated quickly.
Went from 3ft to 4-5ft with a few 6ft sets and super hollow with the draining tide and offshore winds.
It was an outrageous leap!
Good size on beach out front now taking dog for walk. Light onshore, but some guys getting ok waves.
Tomorrow should be on, good for here!
Don't think it will get quiet surf however.
ahh should be fun on the GC beachies, everyone will head to the points, on the higher tide should be good. can sleep in ...
Surfed 2-5pm, it was pumping 4-6ft, lot of big long hollow rides. It's gonna be a good weekend!
Swell of the year for the bloody GC
Fully pumping this morning.
Heard a few old timers saying its the best they've ever seen it ?
Devil wind on the Goldy points
Wind is sh*t
The channel 9 Brisbane surf report Friday 12/7 , said the swell should pick up a bit, and we should go surf the beach breaks because they would be less crowded. Good luck with that, even if you could get out you’d be facing a broken leash and death defying swim in !
Daily report correct. Great morning of barrels and beat downs. Breakfast and back out.
https://www.youtube.com/live/GVxwGVXsiOo?si=BA46ceXHWf8wL9Uq
Does that guy ever surf anywhere else ?I would have driven off after 3 minutes
What a waste of 54 minutes of your life, fair dinkum, no one getting waves cause it was shit, close outs 99% of time, why would you bother!!
No one out at Dbah or any other beach I could see, 6 ft close outs not my idea of quality, even if it is offshore. The points might have a bit of size , but look like a big mess to me.
swellnet gc surf report says 8/10 this morning, then 7/10 fir the 9am update. i completely disagree. every beach i checked from dbah to surfers is not handling the size - too straight and washing through. the odd corner of course, but defo not a 7/10. scores that high should be for quality waves, not just because its a big swell with west winds. burleigh looks average. cooly looks fun but far from perfect with this wind, very sectiony and crowded. waves were way better yesterday morning despite being a lot smaller. the one beach that might handle this swell is not checkable from land anyway.
Agree with the Outta ten scale comment @scrotina. Normally if I see 5 outta ten its probs a 8 for me on selected beaches. Anywhere north of seven and its kaaa kaaa except for overcrowded snapper through to Kirra. It is actually cooking on an island north of the GC atm , am visiting but I kinda need a jetski to get to the outta banks hahaha.
Fully pumping at my old SC local but I’m fully unfit after living in Brisbane for a year. But got some toobs and felt like I was going to throw up during every hard paddle out
Surf also got cut short because my fin ripped my wetsuit to my across my groin
Definitely the ‘anything overhead must be good syndrome’ over hyped froth!
Good as it ever gets around here. Best day since July 7, 2001.
Plenty of surfable options if you can paddle out to them.
Fanning at the point? that was a memorable day! Stoked for ya FR!
Wow! Thats a huge call. Epic!
Uncle Hilton concurs, Woody said he got the best wave he’s ever got out there today.
Amazing!
But you can't with the sweep and the sets, so the crowd is limited to a handful of spots, can't see how that is 9/10?
One gem every 15 minutes the rest of the time close outs.
Being picky but have seen better days with a spread of options.
‘A great day for surfing with waves everywhere ‘ I’m glad I didn’t drive down from Brisbane on that report
Fully pumping if you know where to look. The reporters shouldn’t have to hold your dick for while you pee
Been getting waves all week anyway, don’t need 6 ft close outs , or messy crowded points today
No , but an inexperienced beginner might decide to paddle out at Surfers Paradise on that advice!
Too much water moving where I was - hopefully in a couple of hours
Just got in from just under 4 hour surf.
Good fun beachy with a few pits on offer... Few solid sets....
Resting eating and back out there. Wish SC had more days like this...
that GC morning report must have been done from bed. It's getting better now but the morning was generally horrible everywhere
2nd session proper pumping, more consistent bigger ones with some 6ft, picture perfect, top to bottom pits. I'm cooked, it's clean as and still rolling through. Best day in a very long time. Reports from mates the other end much the same, straight spots but lots of sick ones too, yewwwww!!!!!
Yep pumping where I was southern SC. Nice to have some proper juice...
Good to feel surfed out!!!!!
Nice when we get the lion's share over our GC bretheren, rarely happens. Just checked the cams, it's still pumping too. Anything over 4ft empties out, so good. Here's your Monday recap FR, "Fucking pumping".
hahahaha, stoked you scored!
Just got back in from second session. Totally cooked, some beautiful waves although backed off a tad.
Doesn't really get better than that here...
Stoked.
Beer tastes great!
Definitely cleaning up at the points!
Just watched someone on the greenmount cam get barrelled 6 times from the outside.
Meanwhile, it's barely knee high on the exposed NZ west coast spots.
Aren't you meant to be in overhead Lennox barrels?
Next Friday :-)
Bad timing, but good timing, too. Smashed my back 3 days ago and desperately need the time to heal.
Cleaned up fully this arvo in Cooly. Probably around 300 out though, mental. Action replay on the Tweed Bar cam at 730 of old mate getting helicoptered out from Dbah. Sadly, his mate drowned. Absolutely no business trying to cross the bar this morning without lifejackets. RIP.
The incident is on the cam replay. Around 5:50am mark Ben and co if the cops want the footage. Cops were there from 6:10. Terrible outcome.
Heavy, jeez they were flying over those waves, what were they thinking.
It was still dark and looks like they didnt stop to check conditions cos they flew past the wall and you cannot see the waves from inside the north wall. i'd say old mate wasnt aware of the jump in swell and was driving off his plotter in the dark. the first wave slowed his momentum a touch so he hit the gas and the second wave did the damage. I would suggest he was driving off a track on his plotter in the dark and didnt expect/see the size of the swell out past the north wall. If the skipper survived he has killed his mate and if the skipper died he has killed himself. Tragic situation all round.
The swell reports were all different, 1.8 m easterly on Wilys weather to 2.7 m easterly on Sw .I think SW got it correct.
Swell forecasts that is
The channel 9 beach and surf report the previous night said the swell should pick up a bit tomorrow
Well above my pay grade today, seen two young fellas walking back , one had a snapped board, but smiling . Only one guy out in it , tip my hat to them , proper slamming down but a couple looked makeable if you’re good enough
Was mega. Good as waves get really
Lennox peeps, how did today compare with the big Monday of June ‘16 Black NE swell?
Heaps better as far as wave quality goes.
Sand through the mid-inside section was all-time today.
Look forward to seeing some of the Lennox footage....
Sounds epic....
Damn!
Burleigh turned on this arvo. not all time like the reports from lennox but some nice barrels.
Size wise all the cams looked pretty moderate
4 foot with a couple of bigger sets this arvo. It definitely backed off from the morning pulse
Jeezus Swimmer Rescued at Broken Head....
Swimmer rescued
In a separate incident, a 47-year-old man had to be winched to safety by the rescue helicopter from the ocean at Broken Head.
Rescue crews say he was pulled out to sea and called triple-0 from his smart watch, staying on the phone to emergency services while he waited for help.
He was found more than 1 kilometre offshore near Suffolk Park and dropped back to the beach, where he was able to walk to a waiting ambulance.
He was taken to hospital for assessment but has since been released.
Do you reckon he would have done it if he didn’t have a Smart Watch?
Lennox gonna be even more crowed tomorrow now
A memorable one for me up here on the SC. Been here 7 years and today was definitely one of the cleanest, if not the cleanest, big day I’ve seen since living up here.
what a weekend , surfed friday morning and arvo, missed sat bloody kids sports aaah , made up for it today though , good times
Far out I'm knackered . 4hr surf at the rivermouth, still easy 6ft slabs coming through. Some insane tubes getting got!
Sunshine coast as good as it gets today. I’m cooked.
It would be good if they could get the Narrow Neck cams back online, after so long, so we don’t have to rely on variable interpretations of pumping
Not sure when this was
?si=d_cQJnaUzWQTt8p2?si=ZNk63UrJFrlw_COj
That first vid was some superbank level prickery
Still some healthy sets and barrels this arvo. Slowing down very slowly here.
Surfed this morning just under 2 hours. Bit funky and after yesterday had a pretty ordinary surf.. Rooted.
Knew it would be good this arvo but just didn't have energy to get in water....
Need more days like yesterday in SC.... :)
Best it's been since 2016 (that was better though).
Finally Sprout and Andy good news ...hurray
Another 8 years and sprout will smile again.
Insane beachie barrels this morning. Non stop!
If you had access to a serviceable bank good waves to be had, in the recap , is a lot more accurate than the pumping waves everywhere report claims
Hey, maybe lads shouldn’t be sharing all those kooky ‘youtuber’ clips on here. Half these people don’t even surf, care or have any connection to the people in the water. It’s all about stroking their own ego’s on social media or getting views on YouTube. It’s pretty crook, and a bit of an invasion of peoples privacy. Old mate filming people they don't even know and putting it live on the internet. Literally nuking spots and blowing them out in real time. All the surfers that regularly surf these waves are over it. The drone operators are the worst culprits. Even flying gps jail breaked drones in distinguished CASA no fly zones.
Might be worth writing an article on surf media etiquette gents.
As a lot of these people doing it are clueless to the impact their behavior is having not only crowds but encouraging people to surf waves well beyond their ability. It even robs the pro’s that are doing the right thing, of having quality clips no one has seen. A lot of guys are tight lipped and put clips in a vault to use months down the track. Not everyone thinks what Nathan Florence does is cool or kosher. It’s a slippery slope when it becomes a race to get waves on the internet.
@groundswell85 Hear hear!
share the shit out of all the gold coast breaks but leave the north coast alone, im sure all these recent clips of lennox have made the place even busier on the good and quiet days , ive surfed ballina/ lennox coast for ages (not from there) and had no idea about that slab that people were getting towed into a month back before old mate made that video and named the spot (not that id surf it anyway)
You just re exposed it
wouldnt of done anymore damage as the vid has 100k views
The Gold Coast breaks may actually get less crowded at times than the North coast breaks, because of length and wind direction consistency etc
Amen
Hope y’all got some good ones!
It's a valid opinion, and believe it or not one that we think about a bit. Many times I haven't posted vids sent to me for the reasons you've highlighted. The exposure just doesn't sit right.
I thought long and hard about posting the Lennox vid, even contacted a few people for thoughts, but the decision largely came down to a few things:
It's possible some will say that we're contributing to the problem by sharing it, but if you really want to stop the videos then you've got the wrong end of the stick. The vast majority of numbers and attention aren't here but on YT, FB, and IG accounts.
Also, we've written articles on social media use, though admittedly not for a while - guess it feels to me like that horse has bolted.
More recently I did a series of articles on drone use, and yep, drone use at Lennox is illegal as it's within 5km of Ballina Airport.
https://www.swellnet.com/news/surfpolitik/2019/03/29/crackdown-drone-use
If locals want to follow that up then they can.
I was having trouble getting waves at Lennox in the eighties,
They probably using the Small Drones
If your drone weighs more than 250 g, you must not fly within 5.5 km of a controlled airport (airports with control towers). If it’s 250 g or less, you can fly up to 45 m high within 5.5 km but stay out of the airport boundary and don’t create hazards for other aircraft. Regardless of weight, stay clear of the runway approach and departure paths.
Use a drone safety app to find out where you can and can’t fly.
Out of interest, 250g is a very small drone - a DJI Spark is called a "mini drone" and it's still over 300g, so with this in mind I'd say that the vast majority of drones being operated at Lennox are being done so illegally.
Also, I've approached quite a few drone operators in the Lennox-Ballina area and I'm usually met with blank looks when I mention CASA.
why approach them? in what way does them filming on of the most crowded points in australia affect you? you ain't the police and can't enforce any law. Just sounding like a little whiny girl
Approaching random people and mentioning CASA is proper Karen behaviour.
100%
Haha, fuck I love the way you guys jump to conclusions!
It’s to do with one of the waves being directly under the approach to Ballina airport.
Does that pass muster with you guys?
Is that okay? Does it get your approval?
:)
Nope, you’re still a whiny little Karen
Any drone flying illegally inside the BNK airfield puts my life directly at risk.
You boys don’t need to understand all the rules, but please follow them as they aren’t just put in place for fun
Comprehension is not his strong point.
Lucky you’ve got KarndyM to enforce it for ya.
I have no idea what you’re talking about, clearly you are on glue.
Andy the modern day hero, enforcing an aviation law down at Lennox. Not just an everyday citizen, she's going full Karen to ruin a poor drone guys fun.
Drones can still drop out of the sky and hit people beneath with their propellers spinning. I don’t feel safe under them , what’s the legality with flying them above humans?
I'm sure it's appreciated by many that you Stu / Swellnet do consider these things. I know that I am grateful for this. I used to be a bit harsh or perhaps not as understanding in my opinion of Swellnet on this topic, however have grown to accept that even though I'm not a part of it (social media) - it's out there, there's no putting it back in the box. I can see that Swellnet show a lot of restraint when it comes to exposure.
The generation that can't do a single thing without filming is here to stay. As much as I don't like it nor partake, I'm trying to accept.
Lennox is a really interesting one. In a comment I made on another thread, I was even hesitant to call it by name. I think I first stumbled out over those boulders about 22 years ago. For quite a few years there, you could shoot there on a nice swell and still be met with reasonable vibes (given you pulled your head in). I can remember sessions where there'd be around say 30 in the water spread along the point and even as a complete blow-in could still come away with 6-10 of the best waves you'd ride all year. Now the same swells there'll be at least double that out and to snag a good one from the local pack takes high levels of skill, patience, persistence, luck or a combination of the above.
Although it's still one of my favorite waves in the world, I surf it much less because of the feeling I now get out there. I'm still as competent / confident in competing on those good days, I just don't usually have it in me to expose myself to the show.
lennox aint no secret and by the looks of the crowd on that other wave it isnt a secret either. Get over it boys cause they ain't going anywhere
Consistently a wanker on every single topic
Sorry Hiccup, did your "secret spot" get blown up?
I think his comments are mostly honest and often spot on. Any surfer between the Goldy and Coffs would know that Lennox would have been firing over the weekend so suggesting these vids are blowing up some secret spot is ridiculous. Lennox has been famous for 50 years.
Then there's people saying that filming the Goldie is fine but not Northern NSW, which is a bit of a double standard. Its not the 70's guys, everyone knows about the Northern Rivers and there's more celebrities in Byron than the Goldie.
i dont think anyone here is arguing that lennox is a secret spot but you cant argue that videos like that dont make it busier and the lesser known breaks like the other wave that was filmed and shared everywhere a few weeks ago and over the weekend not too far from lennox, that i bet 80% people here wouldnt of known off ( was even hard to find the setup on google earth before old mate named it in the title) will defintely have more exposure now. definitely not much you can do about it but it still sucks
Wavie yep they shouldn't name those spots but its there in front of the millions of cars that drive along that road each day...not hidden......the thing is if you want to surf it at that size you either have a ski or run the gambit across the rock shelf and hope you time it well...saw Mctavish get dragged across there one day and he went back to his car and somewhere else...its sketchy as.
Burleigh's right ,get over it cause it wont get any better, like everywhere.........Even back in the late 70s i think Neilson bros had a contest at lennox and it was packed for those days with 50 or so out ......so im not surprised its getting a lot of exposure now....sort of went off the boil with the shark problem a while ago but when the banks are good the crowd will follow....like everywhere ....surfing is its own worst enemy.
No ones complaining about the George Greenough Lennox exposure videos, filmed before most of the latest locals were born.