South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S’ly groundswell pulses early this week biggest Tues, easing Wed- favouring NENSW for size
• Another round of unseasonal E’ly tradewind style swell next week, with potential for good surf on the Points and beachies under light winds
• E’ly swells build slowly this week from Wed under “trough-block” scenario with light winds expected
• E’ly swells peak over the weekend with mostly offshore winds
• Easing E’ly swells next week overlapped by sizey S swells from Mon
• Plenty of S swell all next week under current modelling, check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Fun waves on the Points Sat with 3 occ. 4ft of swell under showers and blustery S-SE winds. Those winds eased a notch Sun with a brief period of cleaner conditions before winds kicked up again and similar sized surf which eased into the a’noon. A mixed bag today of S swell to 3-4ft in NENSW and E/SE swell to 2-3ft in SEQLD. Winds have been light offshore through the morning, tending variable E’ly in SEQLD, more E/NE-NE in NENSW. The showery pattern remains as a trough approaches from the west with a large cloud band associated with it.

Fun waves on the Points over the weekend

Finally starting to clean up on the Sunshine Coast beachies

This week (July 8-12)

The monster high that was in the Bight last week is now in the Tasman and still dominating our local weather and surf conditions. An inland trough eventually clears the coast later Tues or Wed and the broad E’ly infeed into the trough transforms a typical but out of season tradewind fetch into a more broadscale “trough block” feature which will send swell to most of the Eastern Seaboard. By the weekend a front will capture the remnants of the trough and we’re looking at a solid return SW-S flow and resultant S’ly swells. Read on for details.

In the short run we’ll see N’ly quarter winds tomorrow, early W-NW, tending N-NE’ly in the a’noon at light/mod paces as one arm of the trough and a small low near Tasmania approach. Small S groundswell should hold some 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches, easing in the a’noon with a fun signal of E swell off the top of the high showing in the 2-3ft range.

With the trough clearing the coast Wed we should see a light/variable flow all day, veering between W and W/NW in the morning with a light S’ly flow developing in the a’noon. With S swell dropped out of the mix we’ll be relying on a summer-style E’ly swell which should see some fun waves in the 3ft range.

Mostly offshore winds for the rest of the week, so no need to hurry with both Thurs and Fri seeing offshore winds. They should tend more W-SW on Thurs, and straight W’ly on Fri. If we do see any seabreezes they will be light. Our E/NE swell will be slowly building. Still mostly 3 occ. 4ft Thurs but by Fri we should see a more consistent 3-4ft signal establish as the trough block starts to come to fruition with a possible boost in the a’noon to 4 occ. 5ft.

Definitely pencil in Thurs and especially Fri if you can. 

This weekend (July 13-14)

Looks like a really good weekend ahead.

E’ly swells from the trough block peak Sat under current modelling and slowly ease Sun. Size should ramp up several notches into the 4-6ft range Sat, back into the 3-5ft range Sun and easing. So with plenty of swell from the favourable E’ly swell angle how are winds looking?

Basically, really good, but there will be some S’ly bias to them as a front brings the return flow around the stalled trough line. Sat morning should be mostly straight W’ly, tending W/SW then SW through the day. There is some model variance around a’noon winds with suggestions of a light SE flow developing or fresher SW-S/SW winds on the radar. 

SW winds look likely for Sun, tending S/SW-S in the a’noon. We’ll fine-tune those winds on Wed but with swells from the E’ly there should be plenty of both beachies and Points on offer. We may see an increase in new short range S swell across NENSW Sun a’noon but Mon looks a better bet for that swell source as detailed below.

Next week (July 15 onwards)

There’s broad model agreement that the frontal passage over the weekend captures the stalled trough and coalesces into a broad, complex low in the Tasman next week. With the low in the Tasman establishing a broad fetch of strong winds to low end gales we’ll see a sizey S swell early next week. Current modelling suggests a strong start to the week with mid period S swell building into the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S exposed breaks in SEQLD with mod SW-S/SW winds. We’ll see some leftover E’ly swell in the mix through Mon in the 3ft range, easing right back Tues.

Plenty of action from the south next week with good odds we’ll see a stronger, longer period S swell later next week, either from a new, deeper fetch or a consolidation of the low near New Zealand. Low confidence specifics this far out so check back in Wed and we’ll start to sharpen the focus on next week. For now, we’ve got some tasty E’ly swell and offshore winds to look forwards too.

Check back Wed for the latest.