South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing E/SE swell Thurs across SEQLD
• Solid rebuild in S/SE swell Thurs into Fri, biggest in NENSW
• S-SE winds all week and into the weekend as monster high in Bight holds firm ridge up the coast
• Easing S/SE swell over the weekend with E/SE trade-style swell holding fun waves
• S’ly groundswell pulses early next week Mon, biggest Tues, easing Wed
• Likely another round of unseasonal E’ly tradewind style swell next week, with potential for good surf on the Points and beachies under light winds
• E’ly swells possibly getting sizey later next week under “trough-block” scenario- check back Fri for latest revisions

Recap

Raggedy S swells yesterday were in the 3-4ft range in NENSW under mod/fresh S-SE winds. We saw more E/SE angled swells start to build as a trough deepened off the SEQLD coast. Those swells are in the 3-4ft range across the region today with S swells still holding in the 3-4 occ. 5ft range in NENSW. SE winds are now confining cleanest conditions to the points after a period during the morning with cleaner offshore conditions and a few workable beachies.

A bit of size on the Sunny Coast beachies

Christmas in July on the Superbank

This week (July 3-5)

The synoptic pattern remains dominated by a massive high pressure belt under the continent, currently with two large cells of 1036 and 1037 hPa below either edge of the continent. This eventually converges into one huge high (1042hPa) through the end of the week as it slowly moves towards Tasmania over the weekend and the Tasman Sea into next week. A low in the Tasman is moving north with a slingshot fetch of S-SE winds expected to rebuild wave heights from the S-SE later today and into tomorrow while a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is sending more E’ly angled swell into the sub-tropical Points. The combination of low and high pressure is maintain a firm ridge along the eastern seaboard with plenty of S-SE wind.  A very active July map.

In the short run and winds will remain mod/fresh SE with a brief window of cleaner conditions in the morning, more likely across the usual suspects from Byron to the Southern Gold Coast.  S/SE swell will boost through tomorrow a’noon in the 4-5ft range with E/SE swell to 3-4ft, slowly easing. Winds will favour the Points again, apart from a period in the morning with some semi-sheltered beachies under SW-S winds.

Rinse and repeat for Fri. Similar mod S-SE winds with morning SW breezes across the region. Size will be  up a notch as S/SE swells peak from the slingshotting fetch around the low. Expect raw, lumpy 5-6ft surf across NENSW with 3-4ft surf into more protected locations and across SEQLD. The QLD points should drop a notch as E/SE swell drops down in the mix although outer Points will still be holding in the head high range at least.

This weekend (July 6-7)

We should see coastal pressure gradients start to ease a notch over the weekend as high pressure drifts over Tasmania and the dominant S/SE-SE swells of this week will be on a slow easing trend as well.

Sat still looks a little iffy for winds with the S-SE flow hanging in there. Reasonable confidence we’ll see a morning land breeze across the MNC to Tweed-Byron stretch but we will still see some residual lump and bump across open and especially S facing stretches of coast. Swells from the SE should hold in the 4-6ft range, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD and easing through the day. 

Sunday looks a better bet for winds, with morning offshores extending into SEQLD and lighter SE winds in the a’noon. Probably still a bit raw and lumpy across beachies but there should be a few workable options in the 3ft+ range in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD with all regions seeing surf easing through the day.

Next week (July 8 onwards)

High pressure moves into the Tasman next week, setting up a broad E’ly flow, initially in the Coral Sea and then extending into the South pacific and Northern Tasman. There are some elements suggestive of a "trough block" with a stationary trough line in a N-S position in the Tasman and Coral Seas and winds feeding into it (see below)- we'll review that on Fri. 

We should see light winds to start the week, tending variable/SE in the a’noon Mon and more  E-NE on Tues.

There should be a few fun beachies around with small E’ly swells starting to  in the 2ft range Mon, possibly a notch bigger Tues. A small pulse of S swell may show Mon a’noon and persist into Tues with 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW. Worth a hunt around with favourable winds.

By mid week and certainly later next week we should see E’ly swells start to slowly boost as the fetch starts to thicken in the swell window and possibly even retrograde back towards the East Coast. Wed onwards looks fun as winds shift more variable under the influence of an approaching inland trough and frontal system. We’ll see how it looks on Fri but it’s worth pencilling in Wed-Fri next week for fun sized 2-3ft surf  likely building to 3-4ft or bigger 3-5ft depending on how the fetch shapes up. We may even have a more bullish outlook come Fri.

Longer term and it looks likely that quality E/NE swell will extend into next weekend. A complex low system approaches from south of the continent during this time frame so we’ll see how that looks on Fri. Best case, we get a return serve from the S as it enters the southern swell window.

Check back Fri for the latest.

Seeya then.