South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri April 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Increasing S-SE winds this weekend with building short range SE swell Sat
• Bigger increase in SE-E/SE swell through Sun as trough of low pressure deepens in Coral Sea
• Fully pumping E/SE swell for the Points from later Sun, peaking Mon and holding Tues with SE winds
• Slow easing in E/SE-E swell through Wed/Thurs
• Improving winds Thurs, possibly offshore Thurs/Fri as low moves off Gippsland coast
• Possible large windy S swell next weekend as low intensifies in Tasman off NSW coast
• Dynamic outlook, check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Slowly easing E swell has been the story over the last 48hrs, holding 2 occ. 3ft sets yesterday and down to 2ft today (when they came). Clean  conditions most of yesterday under light winds and today with mod S’ly winds impending from late-morning. 

Looks like the clubbie carnival scored some fun beachies

This weekend (April 20 - 21)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. A weak trough and front in advance of a monster high pressure ridge sees a fresh SE’ly flow through tomorrow. A trough of low pressure will be deepening in the Central Coral Sea through tomorrow during this period. Tomorrow will be on the small side with minor levels of leftover E swells to 2ft and a building signal of new short range SE swell to 3ft in the a’noon, smaller on the Points.

We’ll see a much bigger increase in size Sun as the trough deepens and a broad fetch of strong SE-E/SE winds builds a hefty local E-E/SE swell. Mod/fresh SE winds will confine surfing to the Points for all but the hardiest surfers and we’ll see surf build from 3ft up into the 5-6ft range late in the day, getting smaller into more sheltered Points and Bays. 

Next week (April 22 onwards)

Lots of solid Point surf into next week as the trough deepens in the Coral Sea and aims up E’ly winds at the coast. By Mon morning we should have a complex trough of low pressure NE of K’gari (Fraser Is) with a well developed fetch of strong SE winds feeding into the low and extending well out into the Coral Sea. Under this scenario we should see pumping Point surf under fresh SE winds. Size in the 6-8ft range is expected at exposed locations, grading smaller into more protected Points. There’ll be plenty of consistency due to the proximity of the fetch so crowds should be ameliorated somewhat. 

Size should hold at that level through Tues, depending on the strength and movement of the low with continuing fresh SE winds. 

Just a caveat, we will see slightly smaller surf south of Yamba as the fetch is best positioned for SEQLD and Far NENSW.

By Wed size should be on a slow easing trend as the low dissipates and moves off the coast into the Coral Sea. It’ll be a slow ease so plenty of size in the 4-6ft range Wed, dropping down to 3-5ft Thurs. We may see winds shift more S or even SW on Thurs as an interior low and front sweep up across the SE of the country, which could open up more locations. We’ll fine tune that on Mon.

That offshore flow should extend into Fri morning as the interior low moves off the Gippsland coast and a front pushes through. Clean E swell to 3ft is on the table. The rest of the day will depend on how the low and front behave. We could certainly see a rapid freshening of SW winds as the system winds up through Fri. 

As the low moves offshore odds are firming we’ll see a major S swell develop as gales develop on the western flank of the low, proximate to the NSW coast (see below). Still low confidence in specifics due to model divergence, with GFS suggesting a much stronger low than EC.

We’ll pencil in a big, windy S swell for Sat, slowly easing through later in the  weekend at this stage and see how it looks on Mon.

Check you then and have a great weekend!