South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon April 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun sized E swells and clean morning Tues under light offshore winds
• Tasman low spins up off Sydney Tues with winds shifting SW/S and freshening across the North Coast through the day
• Fun sized E swell extends into Wed
• S swell spike from mid morning Wed, reaching QLD border later in the day
• Robust S swell Thurs, slowly easing but still strong Fri, persisting over the weekend
• Long period S swells in the mix, showing best in NENSW Fri and over the weekend
• Light winds on the weekend, tending SE in the a’noon
• Low levels of E swell hanging in there, into next week as well
• Light winds and S swells into next week

Recap

Dynamic weekend with a range of winds and swell sizes across the region as a series of troughs impacted the area. Sat was mostly light winds with fun sized 3 occ. 4ft surf from the E/NE-E/SE (bigger 4-5ft surf reported north of Byron). NE winds kicked up in the a’noon. A trough bought more bad weather and strong NE winds into Sun morning but generally cleared by lunch-time with a reasonable spread of offshore winds across the region, tending to glassy or light/variable breezes in the a’noon. Size was generally in the 3-4ft range. Today has seen widespread clean conditions under light morning land breezes and surf holding in the 3ft range with the occ. bigger set. 

Light winds at times across the weekend offered up clean options of varying quality

This week (Apr8-12)

We’ve got a very slow moving pattern this week with a very sluggish and large high (1035hPa) barely moving from a position to the S of WA. That’s allowing plenty of space for low pressure development in the Tasman and as a front pushes through and combines with the remnants of a trough we’ll see a robust low develop through tomorrow, with gales expected close to the coast. Strong frontal activity to the south tied to slow moving and complex polar lows is better aimed at NZ and South Pacific targets but plenty of refraction and sideband southerly energy is expected to make landfall in addition to the Tasman low swell this week and into the weekend. 

In the short run, a lovely clean morning for tomorrow with offshore winds expected to linger through the morning. A low will be forming East of Sydney (see below) and as it develops W/SW-SW winds will start to extend up the coast, reaching the MNC mid/late morning, Byron-Tweed late in the a’noon and just hitting the border one dark or just after. Before that, we’ll see a clean mix of fun E swells to 2 occ. 3ft. 

Fresh/strong SW winds develop into Wed , tending S’ly later in the day. Small surf to begin with, mostly small E swells to 2ft, especially in SEQLD. Gale force winds around the low, proximate to the coast will produce a rapid rise in raw S swell on Wed, likely spiking mid morning on the MNC, lunch-time around the Ballina-Byron area and early a’noon on the Gold Coast. Expect size to build into the 6-8ft range across S exposed breaks on the Northern Rivers (bigger 8-10ft+ across S facing river bars), a notch smaller into regional Points (5-6ft) and 3-5ft across the Gold Coast S facing beaches. Residual E swell from tradewinds in the South Pacific will hold inconsistent 2-3ft sets across the region.

That S swell will stay strong but ease a notch o/night and by Thurs morning with near gales to strong winds extending from the coast down into the Tasman Sea there’ll be a very energetic sea state throughout the region and large, raw S swell to 6ft+, with bigger 8-10ft surf across River bars. Expect much smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD with some S facing beaches seeing 5ft sets. Fresh S/SW-S winds in NENSW, a notch lighter in SEQLD and winds across the region should ease through the day as the low moves away. Residual E swell will hold some inconsistent 2ft sets.

Lighter winds Fri but they’ll still have some S’ly bias to them, which will put some residual bump on S facing beaches. Early SW winds should tend light S’ly before ending up light SE breezes. We’ll see a mix of long period S swell to 2-3ft generated by a fetch of severe gale SW winds well to the south of Tasmania Tues with a follow-up fetch close behind it and S/SE-SE swell to 3ft.

This weekend (Apr 13-14)

The weekend is looking pretty good with light winds both days, tending light SE in the a’noon. We should see persistent morning offshore breezes both days with the Sunshine Coast the only possible outlier depending on how much pressure gradient ease as the low moves away and a weak ridge builds up the coast. 

We should see a mix of long period S and S/SE from an intensification of the Tasman low strengthen into Sat as swell trains fill in behind the swell front. Most S exposed beaches should see surf in the 3 occ. 4ft range Sat across NENSW with 2-3ft surf across open beaches in SEQLD.

S swells from frontal activity help hold 3ft surf into Sun morning at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft elsewhere. We may see a reinforcing pulse arrive in the a’noon across the MNC but we’ll dial that in during the week. Residual E swell from a slowly retreating tradewind fetch with a low anchored on it, should see some inconsistent 2 occ 3ft sets through the day.

Next week (Apr 15 onwards)

Light winds should hold through Mon to Wed next week under a weak, ridgey pattern.  Although we may see a stronger SE pattern north of Cape Moreton.

Sunday’s pulse looks to hold into Mon at a similar size, easing into Tues. 

More mid/long period S swell pulses continue into next week, likely persisting through the end of the week. We’ll finesse size and timing as we move through the week.

E swell also looks to hang in at fun levels from the deep E’ly fetch in the South Pacific but it will be very, very slow and pulsey.

Wind-wise we may see a small low spin up mid next week bringing a S’ly flow from mid week. Not much strength to it under current modelling but we’ll see how it looks on Wed. 

Check back then for the latest update.