South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Mar 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S/SE swell pulse Thurs with easing winds
• Fun blend of easing S/SE and building E swells Fri with winds favouring the Points
• Sizey E’ly swells over the weekend and most of next week with winds favouring the Points

Recap

Solid S swells since Mon with a wide range of observed swell sizes across the f/cast region so feel free to add your personal observations below the line. Size topped out in the Yamba-Ballina region yesterday with solid 6ft+ sets (bigger at river bars) and generally lighter than f/cast S-SE winds. Much smaller surf into protected Points and size graded smaller into SEQLD, especially on the Sunshine Coast which really didn’t see much more than 2 occ. 3ft surf. Still plenty of size today, in fact, some observations suggest even bigger surf across NENSW (river mouth Bars in the 8-10ft range), with plenty of 5-6ft surf reported under light winds tending SE. Smaller surf into more protected points and north of the border with some 3-4ft surf there, although still less than 3ft North of Cape Moreton. 

S swells were strong enough to wrap over 180 degrees into protected Points

This week (Mar 6-8)

The winter-calibre low is now on the other side of New Zealand with a strong high pressure belt expected to become dominant through the medium term. We currently have a weaker cell in the Tasman, with a much stronger cell entering the Bight. This dominant high pressure belt will set up a long, broad tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea, extending at times into the Northern Tasman and South Pacific. Frontal activity to the south is shunted away from the Tasman by the downstream blocking high pattern so only minor, flukey S swells may show through the f/cast period. Otherwise, we’re looking at E’ly quadrant swells, solid in the sub-tropics, grading smaller into temperate NSW. 

In the short run and we’ll see plenty of size still around tomorrow with S swell to 3-5ft across NENSW S exposed breaks and a new pulse of S/SE swell arriving mid morning rebuilding size a notch (4-5ft with the occ. bigger set), grading smaller 2-3ft into SEQLD with 3-4ft sets from lunch-time. Winds should be good, light and variable early, tending mod SE through the a’noon. We’ll start to see E’ly tradewind swells show in the a’noon, more noticeably on the Sunshine Coast and reaching 2-3ft in the a’noon, although winds will be stronger in that region so quality will be low.

SE winds strengthen on Fri as the ridge firms so surface conditions will be choppy away from protected Points. We’ll have a mixed bag of easing S/SE swell to 3-4ft and building E-E/SE trade and short range swells to 2-3ft, bigger 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast. Much smaller peelers running down more sheltered Points.

This weekend (Mar 9-10)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. Classic late Summer pattern sets up this weekeend with high pressure straddling New Zealand, a monsoon trough strung across Northern Australia extending into the South Pacific and a long, broad tradewind fetch between the two broadscale atmospheric features. The fetch is so broad and long and super-charged by low pressure embedded along the Northern Flank that we’ll see quite an energetic E’ly swell build over the weekend and extend into most of next week. 

SE winds set-up over the weekend, with only small windows of lighter SW-S winds inshore early. We’ll see some small S/SE swells in the mix Sat but really these swells will be overlapped quickly by building E’ly swells, with size getting up into the 4ft range by close of play, bigger on the Sunshine Coast.

By Sunday size will be up a notch again, into the 4-6ft range across most of the f/cast region. It’ll be hard to find clean options away from the Points but there will be some more raggedy options at less sheltered Points and semi-sheltered beachies if you can handle some lump and bump and want to get away from crowds. Otherwise, full throated Point surf will be on offer.

Next week (Mar 11 onwards)

High confidence we’ll see strong E’ly swells Mon, in the 4-6ft range with size holding at least into mid-next week. Winds hold S/SE-SE through this period (more E/SE-E south of Yamba) with good odds we’ll see cleaner conditions early under morning SW-S periods between Byron-Gold Coast.

Model divergence then suggests lower confidence from mid next week as far as size goes.

GFS suggests a retrograding low pressure centre from SE of New Caledonia into the wide open E swell window early next week with a stronger pulse possible later next week (Thurs/Fri).

The European model maintains a more bog standard tradewind fetch suggesting more of the same (4-5ft) into the end of next week.

Both models are progging the tradewind fetch to break down later next week. We may see a small low pressure system form in the Tasman during this period, the tropics are still looking active so it’s highly likely we’ll see continuing swell from the E or at least potential swell generating systems from that quadrant. S swells could also be on the menu as the downstream blocking high pattern breaks down.

A good start to Autumn.

Check back Fri for the latest.