South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Feb 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Extended run of trade swell continues  rebuilding again Thurs, peaking Fri at solid levels
• Back to SE winds Fri, lighter on the weekend
• Plenty of fun E swell over the weekend- down a notch on Fri
• More E swell next week with light winds Mon-Wed at least
• Small S swell pulses Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Pulsey E’ly swell continues with yesterday seeing a range of wave heights - mostly in the 3ft range with some bigger sets showing in the a’noon. There were definitely some soft/slow periods to sit through. Winds were generally light and E-SE although a true morning land breeze was lacking across most of the region. Rain and E-E/SE wind today are confining surf to Points and there are some chunky 4-5ft sets coming though long waits for them with most waves in the 3ft range. 

A few silky beachbreaks on offer yesterday

And plenty on the Points although you had to have patience for the sets

This weekend (Feb 17-18)

High pressure belt remains strong with cells lined up to enter the Tasman. A monsoonal low in the Gulf of Carpenteria is generating a long cloud band down the east coast. A long, broad E’ly tradewind fetch extends from the Coral Sea into the South Pacific with the tail of the fetch in Tahitian longitudes. 

No great change to the weekend f/cast- winds still look OK for the Points with light morning breezes (SW-S) both days offering a chance for morning beachbreaks tending to E-SE breezes that shouldn’t exceed 10/15 knots. A bit of bump but generally surfable through the day. 

E swell from the long tradewind band offers up 3-4ft surf through Sat, although be prepared for some pulses and soft/slow patches due to the travel distance and nature of the fetch (showing diurnal variation). 

That swell looks to slowly level of and soften further through Sun, so best get in early.

There will be traces of S swell  Sun but only really showing the odd set at S facing beaches in NENSW, if at all.

Next week (Feb19 onwards)

A frontal system tracking under Tasmania has a wide but zonal fetch through Sun/Mon. That will send pulses of mid and longer period S swell wrap for Tues/Wed. Likely in the 2-3ft range Tues a’noon and holding at that size Wed morning before easing.

Winds will be light for the first half of next week at least with variable land breezes in the morning and light SE-E/SE winds in the a’noon. 

Through this period and in fact most of next week we’ll continue to see  pulsey E’ly swells coming off the deep E’ly fetch. A tropical low in Samoan longitudes drifts SE and is not a significant swell source.There will be ups and downs in size as the fetch fluctuates but 3 occ. bigger sets look likely through the first half of next week. 

We may see some larger embedded pulses as a tropical low drifts southwards through the South Pacific slot next week but models are divergent over the strength of that low so we’ll pencil in the possibility of larger 4ft surf Thurs/Fri next week (nothing that should need a step-up) and see how it looks Mon.

Winds shift light NE’ly later next week - from Wed-Fri south of Ballina, remaining more E’ly north of the border.

A front brings a S’ly change late Sat or Sun and some new S-SE swell with it. EC has a stronger frontal system with some short range S-SE swell likely Sun with the SE surge and mid period S swell filling in behind it while GFS has a weaker system, decaying as it enters the Tasman and not much behind it all.

It’s likely we’ll see some sort of S swell next weekend but we’ll take a look with fresh eyes on Mon.

Tropics are still looking active into the end of model runs although with nothing specific to talk about at the moment. Check back Mon for that too.

Seeya then and a have a great weekend!