South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Feb 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Extended run of strong trade swell, becoming large later Sun, peaking Mon, easing very slowly Tues onwards
• Fresh SE winds the norm for the next week- tending more E-NE on the MNC Tues/Wed, then S-SE again from Thurs
• Plenty of other swell sources on the cards, but with these conditions the next two weeks will be best suited for the regional points
• Possibly beachbreak windows Wed AM and Thurs AM (keep tabs on local winds)

Recap

Pulsey E’ly tradewind swells (and a small amount of SE short range swell in NENSW) have continued to offer surf in the 2-3ft range with a few bigger sets on offer mostly at favourable tides (higher for the beachies, lower for the Points). Mostly S/SE-SE winds, favouring the Points, with some windows of lighter and even offshore SW breezes on the backside of rain squalls (typical monsoonal wind pattern). 

Clean and pumping this morning

This weekend (Feb 10-11)

We’ve got a very strong high pressure belt at the moment with a cell in the Tasman (twin cells actually, straddling New Zealand) and monster high moving in from the Bight. A trough off the NSW coast is focussing SE winds along the Eastern Seaboard, with a strong front/low traversing the Lower Tasman. A tropical low near New Caledonia is anchoring a trade-flow in the Coral Sea.

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Winds will be from the SE, with some softer patches in the morning, and possibly even tending SW around rain squalls. Otherwise favouring the Points for quality.  There will be some longer period S swells in the mix later Sat and into Sun from a strong front (see below) adding some 3ft energy into the mix- bigger at S facing beaches but highly wind affected- but mostly low down as a weak signal amongst the prevailing trade-swell energy across the Points.

Local tradewinds do ease through today so we may see a slight easing trend through Sat, from 3ft to more 2ft with the occ. 3 footer. Likely offset somewhat by new moon tides where the a’noon low tide will show the energy more on shallow banks.

The E’ly-SE’ly fetch gets reinforced later Sat by a new high pressure ridge squeezing up against a tropical low hovering NW of New Caledonia so we should see surf start to build again through Sun, again, tidally affected by the big new moon tidal amplitudes. Expect 3ft surf to build up into the 3-4ft range with a few bigger outliers likely on outer Gold Coast Points as the tide drains. 

Next week (Feb12 onwards)

No great change to next week’s outlook. The tropical low near New Caledonia remains, although unlikely to deepen further into a tropical cyclone at this stage of the game. The super-charged tradewind fetch is likely to develop a fully developed sea state which is a function of duration and offers the maximum amount of swell energy for a given wind speed and why these trade swells tend to punch above their weight. 

That should see plenty of 4-5ft surf across the Outer Points, grading smaller into more sheltered inside Points and Bays with some unruly 5-6ft surf across the beachies for the very keen. Winds remain moderate SE, tending more E/SE-E south of Ballina.

That should hold into Tues morning before a slow easing in size through to Thurs, with a floor underneath of 3-4ft at a minimum. 

S’ly groundswell in the mix Mon will supply some 3ft sets but again, with the prevailing wind and swell regime it’ll only be a minor player, if that, at a few semi-exposed Points in NENSW.

We should see winds soften later Tues into Wed, possibly offering up some clean beachbreaks for SEQLD. NENSW will see a more NE flow through this period, possibly tending mod/fresh on the MNC as a trough approaches. Winds then shift S-SE again from Thurs.

A decaying front Wed looks to send some small S swell up the Pipe, likely adding some small 2-3ft S swell in the mix Fri at NENSW S facing beaches. We’ll review that Mon.

There is a bit of model divergence later next week with ECMWF suggesting a deepening trough anchoring the E’ly fetch in the Northern Tasman  with a bit more swell potential for temperate NSW and easing surf in the sub-tropics, while GFS holds a more stock standard Coral Sea based tradewind fetch favouring Northern parts of the state. Either way we’ll continue to see E’ly quadrant swells over this period.

There’s still some chance of cyclogenesis in the South Pacific next week although latest model runs now favour the Samoan region, with a SE track and not much direct surf potential for the East Coast. That could change so we’ll track it over the weekend and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!