South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small NE swells Sat with NE winds- lighter and more variable south of the border with a S’ly change from Coffs-Yamba
• Small mixed bag and onshore SE-E/SE winds Sun
• Small S swells over the weekend and into Mon (only showing south of the border)
• Boost in short range SE-E/SE swell Mon, easing slightly into Tues with winds easing
• Small weak surf from Wed next week- possibly some slightly bigger S swell later in the weekend- get ready to grovel!

Recap

E swells were incredibly persistent into Thurs with light winds and size to 3ft+ on the sets (few bigger ones reported) offering up some really good beachies across t he region. NE winds reached fresh paces in the a’noon with a few fun waves at backbeaches. NE winds this morning have blown out all but a few backbeaches and E swell has dipped back to 2ft with just the occ. bigger set.

Fun in the sun at backbeaches yesterday

This weekend (Jan 27-28)

Strengthening N’ly winds off the cast tonight bring workable NE windswell tomorrow, especially south of the border. Size in the 2-3ft range in SEQLD grading larger 3ft south of Ballina should be on offer. We'll also see small amounts of S swell from a frontal passage in the Tasman. Fresh N tending N/NW winds early and for most of the day north of the border. A trough will be moving north bringing a S’ly change to Coffs in the morning and an afternoon variable NE/SE flow from Byron-Tweed as it stalls out south of the border. Keep tabs on local winds as any speeding up or stalling of the trough will influence local winds, especially south of the border.

The trough moves north over/night Sat into Sun with a SE flow becoming established across the North Coast and into SEQLD by mid-morning. Small amounts of SE swell  blend with local NE windswell through the a’noon offering up some workable 2ft surf for the keen.

Next week (Jan 29 onwards)

Not much happening to start the new week. High pressure moves quickly into the Tasman, with a SE-E/SE flow anchored by the trough bringing some local swell from that direction in the 2-3ft range, along with some small S swell trains to 2-3ft at NENSW S facing beaches.

The low pressure near New Zealand and off axis fetch on the west coast of the North Island now looks very weak and poorly aligned so not much at all, if anything is expected from this source. 

Fun sized E/SE swell to 2-3ft carries over into Tues with lighter winds offering up some fun beachies.

That leaves a  small blend of NE and E swells to carry through in the 2ft range into Wed and likely Thurs. Variable/light onshore winds Wed extend into Thurs before tending NE through the day, with no real strength behind it. Keep the grovellers and high volume boards handy.

Later next week we should see a stronger series of fronts pass through the lower Tasman. A weaker front Wed may bring some small S swell later  Fri but a much stronger system tracks NE into the Tasman Thurs/Fri with a wide band of gales suggesting a more substantial S swell event sometimes later next weekend. Too far out to have any confidence in specifics but pencil in a S’ly groundswell next weekend, potentially with N’ly winds.

Further ahead and the tropics remains active with a long monsoon trough extending from the Coral Sea out into the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Strongest winds are the monsoonal surge nor-westers along the top of the trough but there are signs more favourable E’ly winds will develop along the bottom of the trough later next week, favouring sub-tropical regions for small E swell either later next weekend to into the week 5/2. It's possible we may see a cyclone form in the Fijian region next week but models suggest a rapid track away from our swell window and limited surf potential. We’ll keep tabs on that over the weekend and see how it looks on Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!